ATLANTA, 27 October 2026 — Flu vaccination reduced the risk of children dying from influenza by 80 percent overall in the United States across nine flu seasons, according to a major new study by researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published in the journal Pediatrics. The protection held for children with underlying medical conditions as well as for otherwise healthy children, a finding that challenges the common assumption that only medically vulnerable children face serious danger from the flu.
The study, led by Jerome S. Leonard of the CDC's Influenza Division in Atlanta, examined influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported in the United States from the 2016–2017 season through the 2024–2025 season, excluding the 2020–2021 season during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its headline result — 80 percent effectiveness against death, with a statistical confidence interval of 75 to 84 percent — has been welcomed by pediatricians as some of the strongest evidence yet that seasonal flu vaccination saves children's lives.
Illustration: A child receiving a flu vaccine, symbolising the protection the CDC study found against fatal influenza in children.
What Happened
Researchers compared the vaccination status of children who died from laboratory-confirmed influenza with survey estimates of vaccination coverage among children of the same ages in the same states. Deaths were drawn from the U.S. Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System and covered children aged six months to 17 years. Children counted as fully vaccinated if they had received current-season doses at least 14 days before their illness began.
Of 1,234 influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported over the study period, 1,086 had vaccination information available. Among those, only 194 children — about 18 percent — were fully vaccinated, while 82 percent had not been fully vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness against death was estimated at 80 percent overall. The benefit was 77 percent among children with known high-risk medical conditions, such as asthma, and 87 percent among children without known conditions, according to reporting on the study.
The protection varied by age and by virus type. Among children with high-risk conditions, effectiveness was stronger in the youngest children — 83 percent in those aged six months to four years — than in teenagers aged 13 to 17, where it was 66 percent. Effectiveness was 68 percent against influenza A–associated deaths and 77 percent against influenza B–associated deaths. Season by season, effectiveness in children without high-risk conditions ranged from 77 percent in the 2022–2023 season to 95 percent in the 2024–2025 season.
The findings arrive at a worrying moment for pediatric flu coverage. The 2024–2025 season was one of the most severe for children in recent decades, with close to 300 pediatric influenza deaths reported — the highest toll for a non-pandemic season since national tracking of child flu deaths began in 2004, according to one account of CDC data. In the following season, 2025–2026, about 184 children died, and close to 90 percent of them were unvaccinated, with about 45 percent having no underlying medical conditions, according to experts cited in recent medical reporting.
Background
Influenza is often dismissed as a routine winter illness, but for a small number of children each year it turns severe or fatal. The virus can trigger pneumonia, sepsis, inflammation of the heart or brain, and worsening of chronic conditions such as asthma. Because it is impossible to predict which child will develop a severe case, pediatric guidance in the United States has long recommended annual flu vaccination for all children aged six months and older.
Children aged six months through eight years who are receiving a flu vaccine for the first time, or who have had only one dose ever before 1 July 2026, need two doses given at least four weeks apart; after that first series, one dose each season is enough. Health officials urge families to complete vaccination by the end of October, before flu activity typically rises, although vaccination later in the season still offers benefit.
Yet uptake has been falling. Pediatric influenza vaccination coverage in the United States peaked at 63.7 percent in the 2019–2020 season and fell to 49.4 percent in 2025–2026, well short of the Healthy People 2030 goal of 70 percent, according to figures cited in recent expert discussions. Parents decline vaccination for reasons that include concerns about safety and side effects, doubts about whether the vaccine works, and a belief that their child is unlikely to become seriously ill — a belief that national survey data show has grown since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Illustration: A pediatric clinic scene, reflecting the study's finding that vaccination protects children with and without underlying conditions.
Earlier evidence had already shown that flu vaccination reduces doctor visits, hospital stays and school absences in children. In a separate CDC analysis, vaccination was estimated to have prevented nearly 15,000 hospitalizations and 245 deaths among children and teenagers in the 2024–2025 season alone, according to the AAP. What the new Pediatrics study adds is a direct, large-scale estimate of protection against the rarest and most serious outcome: death.
Why It Matters
The central message of the study is simple and consequential: the children who die from flu are overwhelmingly the children who were not fully vaccinated. Fewer than one in five deaths in the study occurred in fully vaccinated children. For parents weighing whether a healthy child really needs a flu shot, the 87 percent effectiveness figure among children without known conditions is the most relevant number in the paper.
The findings also sharpen the debate about how clinicians talk to families. Experts advising pediatricians recommend against fear-based appeals or overwhelming families with data. Instead, they suggest a presumptive approach — for example, telling families a vaccine has been reserved for their child — combined with asking permission to explore concerns and finding common ground. A provider's recommendation is one of the strongest influences on a family's decision, and a strong recommendation can take as little as 30 seconds.
There is also a fairness dimension. Flu does not strike evenly: children in households with less access to care or less flexible work schedules are less likely to be vaccinated and more exposed to severe outcomes. Falling national coverage therefore risks widening gaps that already exist, and public health officials argue that school-based clinics, reminder systems and clear, consistent recommendations are needed to close them.
Finally, the study provides context for the current season. Early in the 2026–2027 season, the H1N1 variant known as G155E has dominated recent infections, and younger children have limited prior immunity to H1N1 viruses, according to recent vaccine surveillance reporting. Laboratory tests reported by the CDC found that 93 percent of recently isolated H1N1 viruses were recognised by antibodies for the H1N1 virus chosen for this season's vaccines, suggesting this season's vaccines should still offer meaningful protection.
What Happens Next
For families, the practical next step is unchanged: children aged six months and older should receive this season's flu vaccine, ideally before flu activity peaks, and younger first-time vaccinees should complete both doses. Parents who are unsure about timing or doses should speak to their child's pediatrician.
For public health agencies, the study is likely to feature heavily in this winter's vaccination campaigns, particularly in messages aimed at parents of healthy children. The AAP has already highlighted the 80 percent figure in its communications to pediatricians, urging them to recommend vaccination at every visit. Surveillance of hospitalizations, deaths and vaccine effectiveness will continue through the season, and any sign of reduced protection would prompt fresh guidance.
Illustration: A family heading into flu season, as health officials urge vaccination before activity peaks.
The broader lesson extends beyond a single winter. The study covers nearly a decade of flu seasons, through varying virus strains and vaccine matches, and the protective signal remained strong throughout. As one pediatrician quoted in recent coverage put it, being healthy does not make a child immune to a severe outcome from the flu — but vaccination, the evidence now shows, substantially reduces the risk of the worst outcome of all.
Sponsored: explore today's featured sponsored offers
FAQ
What did the CDC study find?
The study, published in Pediatrics and covering the 2016–2017 through 2024–2025 flu seasons, found that flu vaccination was 80 percent effective at preventing death from influenza in U.S. children aged six months to 17 years, with 77 percent effectiveness in children with underlying conditions and 87 percent in children without them.
How many children were included in the study?
Researchers examined 1,234 reported influenza-associated pediatric deaths, of which 1,086 had vaccination information. Only about 18 percent of those deaths occurred in fully vaccinated children, while 82 percent occurred in children who were not fully vaccinated.
Does a healthy child still need a flu vaccine?
Yes, according to the study and pediatric guidance. More than half of the deaths examined occurred in children with no known high-risk conditions, and vaccination was 87 percent effective against death in that group. The AAP recommends annual flu vaccination for all children aged six months and older.
How many doses does a young child need?
Children aged six months through eight years who are getting a flu vaccine for the first time, or who have had only one dose ever before 1 July 2026, need two doses at least four weeks apart. After that first series, one dose each season is sufficient.
Is it too late to get vaccinated once flu season has started?
No. Health officials recommend completing vaccination by the end of October, before flu activity typically peaks, but vaccination later in the season still offers protection, and families should speak to their child's pediatrician about timing.
Sources
- Leonard, J.S. et al., "Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Pediatric Death in the United States: 2016–2025," Pediatrics (2026), via CDC and AAP summaries, October 2026.
- CIDRAP commentary, "Sometimes it's not 'just the flu' — a plea for vaccination from a father's heart," October 2026.
- Urban Health Today, "CDC: Most Pediatric Flu Deaths Occurred in Unvaccinated Children," October 2026.
- AJMC, "Experts Weigh Flu Vaccine Timing in Pregnancy and Pediatric Uptake," October 2026.
- The Educated Patient, "Flu Shots Cut Children's Risk of Flu Death by 80%, and October Is the Time to Get One," October 2026.
Comments
Post a Comment