The Global Plastics Treaty Is Stuck on One Word: Production — Jakarta Talks Point to a March 2027 Deal

After more than four years of talks, the world's first treaty to end plastic pollution is heading for a decisive round in March 2027, after negotiators meeting in Jakarta in October 2026 narrowed their differences but left the central question unresolved: should the treaty cap how much plastic the world makes, or only manage the waste afterwards? The Jakarta informal consultation, held October 13 to 15 and convened by Indonesia and Norway with delegates from 11 countries, followed heads-of-delegation talks in Bangkok in late September, and the diplomat chairing the talks says a deal is possible at the next formal round.

Illustration: Negotiators are racing to agree the world's first treaty to end plastic pollution, with production caps the key sticking point.

What Happened

The three-day Jakarta Informal Consultation Meeting on the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) on Plastic Pollution brought together government representatives to exchange views and explore areas of convergence, according to Ecobiz Asia's report on the meeting. The meeting was jointly organised by Indonesia's Ministry of Environment and Environmental Control Agency (KLH/BPLH) and Norway's Ministry of Climate and Environment.

Indonesia used the forum to advocate an approach that addresses plastic pollution across the full life cycle, from product design and production through consumption and waste management, including measures to prevent plastics from leaking into the environment. Agus Rusly, director of waste reduction and circular economy development at the ministry, said on October 15, 2026, that the ministry supports an effective and implementable instrument that takes into account national sovereignty, the balance between the right to a good and healthy environment and the right to development, and national plans as the primary basis for implementation, while also considering differences in each country's circumstances and capacities.

The Jakarta talks were the latest step in a process that has already overrun its original schedule by more than a year. Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, who took over as chair of the negotiations earlier in 2026, told AFP in Bangkok on October 4, 2026, after informal closed-door talks with heads of delegations, that countries were less divided than before and that a deal could be agreed in March. "My plan and my expectation is that we will be able to adopt the treaty in INC 5.4 (March meeting), if we follow the correct steps, if we make consistent progress, and if we complete the roadmap that I presented," he said. Ahead of the Bangkok talks, Cordano released an "aid to negotiations" document, a non-binding outline of a possible treaty, with brackets around the most contentious sections. A second iteration of that document is expected to form the basis of the March 2027 talks.

Background

Work on the treaty began in March 2022, when the UN Environment Assembly adopted a resolution to create a legally binding international instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment, with an original two-year timeline. Crunch talks in South Korea in 2024 fell apart, and a renewed effort in Geneva in 2025 made no progress. Between September 27 and 30, 2026, heads of delegations met informally in Bangkok, the second such meeting since June, to consolidate areas of convergence and identify bridging solutions based on the chair's aid document, according to the International Science Council.

The divide is not a technical footnote. A coalition of more than 100 countries, led by a proposal from Panama, wants the treaty to set targets for reducing plastic production from the source. A smaller bloc of mostly oil-producing states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia, has pushed back against production restrictions, seeking to focus more narrowly on waste management. Some reporting also names the United States and China among the major powers resisting binding production caps, and notes that OPEC views the plastics sector as a vital outlet for hydrocarbons. That split has now sunk three rounds of talks in a row.

The stakes are enormous. The UN environment agency puts annual plastic output above 430 million tonnes, the bulk of it short-lived packaging that becomes waste within months, and production is expected to triple by 2060 if current trends continue. Scientists have found plastic particles from the bottom of the sea to the clouds overhead, and traces have been detected in human bodies. The amount of plastic pollution in the world's oceans is estimated to have trebled since 2000, and even though less than 1 percent of global plastics are thought to end up in the ocean each year, the sheer scale of production means the impact on marine ecosystems and coastal communities is severe.

Illustration: More than 100 countries back production targets, while oil-producing states want the treaty to focus on waste management only.

Beyond production, other issues remain bracketed in the draft text: restrictions on chemicals of concern, rules for problematic plastic products, mention of human health, and the creation of financial mechanisms for international cooperation. The International Science Council, which has called for contributions of scientific expertise ahead of the decisive phase, notes that the evidence brought to the table now will be critical to shaping an effective treaty, with its call for contributions closing on October 23, 2026.

Why It Matters

A treaty that only manages waste would leave the tap running. Recycling alone cannot keep pace with production growth: most plastic is made from fossil fuels, much of it is used briefly and discarded, and recycling rates remain low worldwide. Countries backing production targets argue that without slowing production, waste systems in developing nations, which often lack collection and recycling infrastructure, will be overwhelmed no matter how much money is spent downstream.

The treaty also matters for health and for the climate. Plastic production is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, and the chemicals added to plastics, some of which are flagged as chemicals of concern in the negotiations, raise questions about exposure through food, water and consumer products. A strong treaty could reshape product design, pushing manufacturers toward reusable, recyclable or genuinely compostable alternatives, while a weak one could lock in decades of rising production.

For businesses, the outcome will shape supply chains. If negotiators fail again in March, some nations are already weighing unilateral restrictions on domestic plastic manufacturing, a shift that could fragment rules and create cost volatility for companies reliant on plastic inputs. A single global framework, even an imperfect one, would give producers, retailers and recyclers a clearer set of rules to plan around than a patchwork of national bans and standards.

Illustration: A circular economy, where plastics are reused and recycled rather than discarded, is central to the treaty's ambitions.

What Happens Next

The road to March runs through the intersessional period, during which governments will work from the second iteration of the chair's aid document, the likely text for INC-5.4. Cordano has insisted that countries are closer than their public positions suggest, saying members are "much more closer than simply binary positions that are irreconcilable." His approach, described as flexibility and pragmatism, aims to build common ground on the scope of the treaty, chemicals of concern and finance, rather than forcing a public showdown that could collapse the talks again.

Watch for three signals before March. First, whether any oil-producing state softens its opposition to production language, even in the form of voluntary targets or a review clause. Second, whether the finance question advances: developing countries want dedicated funding to build waste systems and transition industries, and the treaty's credibility in the Global South depends on it. Third, whether major economies signal support for design standards, such as phasing out the most problematic single-use products, which could give negotiators early wins to build momentum.

If INC-5.4 in March 2027 adopts a treaty, it would be the first legally binding global agreement on plastic pollution, a landmark comparable to the climate and biodiversity accords. If it fails, the process will have consumed five years without a deal, and plastic production will keep rising toward that tripling by 2060. Either way, the Jakarta talks confirmed that the question is no longer whether plastic pollution deserves a treaty, but whether the world can agree on one strong enough to matter.

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FAQ

What is the global plastics treaty?

It is a proposed legally binding international agreement to end plastic pollution, including in the marine environment, mandated by a UN Environment Assembly resolution in March 2022. Negotiations are conducted through the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC), with the next formal round, INC-5.4, scheduled for March 2027.

Why have the talks stalled?

The central dispute is whether the treaty should cap plastic production. More than 100 countries, led by a Panama proposal, want production reduction targets, while a bloc of mostly oil-producing states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia, opposes caps and wants the treaty to cover waste management only. Chemicals of concern, product design rules and finance are also contested.

What happened at the Jakarta talks in October 2026?

Indonesia and Norway convened delegates from 11 countries for a three-day informal consultation on October 13 to 15, 2026, to explore convergence across the full life cycle of plastics, from design and production to waste management. It followed heads-of-delegation talks in Bangkok from September 27 to 30, 2026.

How much plastic does the world produce?

The UN environment agency puts annual plastic output above 430 million tonnes, mostly short-lived packaging, and production is expected to triple by 2060 on current trends. Ocean plastic pollution is estimated to have trebled since 2000.

Will there really be a deal in March 2027?

Chair Julio Cordano told AFP on October 4, 2026, that a deal could be adopted at INC-5.4 in March if countries follow his roadmap and make consistent progress, and that positions are closer than they appear. But the production-cap split has sunk three previous rounds, so March remains a test, not a guarantee.

Sources

• Ecobiz Asia, "Indonesia, Norway Convene 11 Countries to Advance Global Plastics Treaty Talks," October 15, 2026, on the Jakarta Informal Consultation Meeting, October 13 to 15, 2026.
• AFP, "Plastic treaty talks chair sees deal possible in March," October 4, 2026, quoting INC chair Julio Cordano after Bangkok heads-of-delegation talks.
• International Science Council, "Plastic pollution treaty negotiations at a turning point," October 12, 2026, on the Bangkok meeting of September 27 to 30, 2026, and the aid-to-negotiations process.
• UN Environment Programme figures on global plastic production, as reported in October 2026 treaty coverage.