31 October 2026 — October 2026 is on track to become the hottest October ever recorded, with global temperatures set to reach around 1.76 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to projections reported by Scientific American on 30 October 2026.
The projected figure would surpass the previous October record of 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, set in 2023, also an El Niño year. The analysis, by climate scientists Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather using data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, points to a month that is not merely warm by historical standards, but record-breaking — and, the researchers warn, possibly only the beginning of a hotter stretch ahead.
Illustration: Planet Earth glowing red-orange beside a rising thermometer, above cracked dry earth, in stylised editorial illustration form.
October's likely record follows a year already full of superlatives in the United States, including its hottest September, its hottest first eight months and its hottest 12-month period on record, as well as the hottest global ocean temperatures ever recorded, Scientific American reported. Taken together, the figures describe a planet that is not warming gradually in the background, but setting new benchmarks in month after month.
What Happened
Scientific American reported on 30 October 2026 that October was "almost certainly" going to be the hottest October ever recorded. Global temperatures for the month were set to be around 1.76 degrees Celsius (about 3.17 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, based on the Dessler and Hausfather projection of Copernicus data.
That framing matters: with the month not quite complete at the time of reporting, the record is a projection rather than a final confirmed tally. But the margin and the direction of travel left little doubt in the researchers' assessment. October 2023, the previous record-holder, stood at 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the same analysis.
An especially hot October also puts 2026 on track to be among the hottest years ever recorded — if not the hottest — according to the same projections, Scientific American reported. That annual picture is consistent with, but distinct from, earlier 2026 assessments that put the year on course for a record annual average.
The researchers link the October surge to the onset of a powerful El Niño. Hausfather said the record-setting October was a sign that the "Super El Niño" was kicking into gear and would likely be the first in a series of record-setting months, culminating in a record-setting 2027, Scientific American reported.
Background
El Niño is a cyclic climate pattern in which part of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, affecting weather around the world. On its own it pushes global temperatures up for months at a time; combined with long-term warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels, it can tip individual months and years into record territory.
The 2023 precedent is instructive. That year was also an El Niño year, and its October record of 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels stood for three years. The projected 2026 figure of around 1.76 degrees would clear it — a reminder that records set during one El Niño can be broken by the next, because the underlying warming trend has moved higher in the meantime.
Illustration: A band of unusually warm red water along the equatorial Pacific Ocean with storm clouds forming above it, in stylised editorial illustration form.
The 1.5-degree threshold at the centre of the Paris Agreement is also in view. The 2015 agreement committed nearly 200 nations to try to keep global temperature rises well below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Individual months above 1.5 degrees do not by themselves mean the Paris target has been breached — the target is assessed over longer periods — but a month at around 1.76 degrees shows how far above that line the planet can now run during a strong El Niño.
At the COP28 climate conference in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. Those commitments form the backdrop to the negotiations now approaching in Turkey, where governments will be asked to show how far they have turned pledges into policy.
Why It Matters
A record-hot October matters for three reasons. First, heat is not an abstract statistic: hotter months bring more intense heatwaves, heavier downpours in some regions and deeper drought in others, and they strain health systems, crops, water supplies and power grids. The United States' own 2026 superlatives — hottest September, hottest first eight months, hottest 12-month period — illustrate how a warm year is felt as a run of extremes, not a single hot day.
Second, the timing sharpens the political stakes. The United Nations climate summit COP31 opens in Antalya, Turkey, on 9 November 2026, barely a week after October's record projection. Negotiators will meet with fresh evidence that the climate is already running hotter than the targets they set, and with the UN warning that overshooting 1.5 degrees must not become an excuse to give up.
Third, the El Niño signal points forward, not just backward. If Hausfather's assessment proves right — that October is the first in a series of record-setting months leading to a record-setting 2027 — then the months after COP31, not just the summit itself, will test whether countries' plans can keep pace with a rapidly warming ocean-atmosphere system.
What Happens Next
The immediate focus is Antalya. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will attend the COP31 summit, the Brazilian presidency said on 30 October 2026, according to Reuters. Lula, recently re-elected, is scheduled to arrive on 10 November for the leaders' summit on 11–12 November, before travelling to the Philippines for the ASEAN summit on 13 November.
Lula will hand over the COP presidency to Turkey, which will oversee the conference over the next year under a shared arrangement with Australia, which is coordinating the diplomatic negotiations, Reuters reported. So far, 77 heads of state and government have confirmed their participation in the summit.
Illustration: A large international climate summit hall with rows of delegates and national flags, in stylised editorial illustration form.
The summit's agenda is already contested. China has called for COP31 to focus on implementing existing commitments and on closing gaps in emissions cuts and climate finance, while African countries have pushed for a tripling of adaptation finance. The European Union, meanwhile, will not be making new climate finance commitments at COP31, climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said, as quoted by Bloomberg and reported on 29 October 2026 — a position that sets up a difficult negotiation over money for the most vulnerable countries.
Earlier in October, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed told a pre-COP meeting in Tuvalu and Fiji that "overshoot is not a reason to surrender", urging states to make any overshoot of 1.5 degrees as short and small as possible and to bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible. She also pointed to the Baku to Belém Roadmap, which aims to mobilise at least $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance for developing countries by 2035.
Watch for four things in the coming weeks. First, the final Copernicus tally for October, which will confirm whether the month did set a new record and by how much. Second, whether COP31 produces a presidency-led decision with concrete steps on electrification, finance and adaptation, or settles for a more general statement. Third, how the developing El Niño evolves through the northern winter, when its global temperature effect is usually strongest. And fourth, whether 2027 does follow the researchers' projection and open with a run of record months — the outcome that would turn October's warning into a longer trend.
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FAQ
Is October 2026 confirmed as the hottest October on record?
Not yet in final form. Scientific American reported on 30 October 2026 that October was "almost certainly" going to be the hottest October ever recorded, based on projections by Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather using Copernicus Climate Change Service data. The final monthly tally will confirm the figure.
How hot was October 2026 projected to be?
Around 1.76 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the previous October record of 1.7 degrees Celsius set in 2023, according to the same projection.
What is a Super El Niño?
El Niño is a cyclic pattern in which part of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, affecting weather worldwide. A "Super El Niño" refers to an especially strong event. Hausfather said the record October was a sign that such an event was kicking into gear, Scientific American reported.
Does a month above 1.5 degrees mean the Paris Agreement target is lost?
No, not by itself. The Paris target is assessed over longer periods, not single months. But a month at around 1.76 degrees shows how far above 1.5 degrees the planet can run during a strong El Niño, which is why the UN has urged countries not to treat overshoot as a reason to surrender.
When and where is COP31?
COP31 runs from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey, with a leaders' summit on 11–12 November. Brazil's President Lula is scheduled to arrive on 10 November, and 77 heads of state and government had confirmed their participation as of 30 October 2026, according to Reuters.
Sources
- Scientific American, "This October is on track to be the hottest ever recorded", 30 October 2026 (projections by Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather, based on Copernicus Climate Change Service data).
- Reuters, "Brazil's Lula to attend UN COP31 climate summit in Turkey", 30 October 2026.
- United Nations, "'Overshoot is not a reason to surrender': UN calls for accelerated climate action ahead of COP31 summit", 9 October 2026.
- OilPrice.com, "EU Rules Out New Climate Finance Pledges at COP31", 29 October 2026 (quoting EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra via Bloomberg).
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