LONDON, 27 October 2026 — High inflation will persist in the global economy well into next year, according to a Reuters poll of more than 500 economists, who are increasingly worried that price pressures will become entrenched and spread beyond the energy costs driven by the war in the Middle East. The survey, published on 27 October 2026, found forecasters raising their 2027 inflation projections for 31 of the 50 economies polled, even as many of them also raised their growth forecasts, a combination that points to an economy that is proving resilient but not yet cooling enough to bring prices back under control.
Illustration: A shopping basket, fuel pump and rising price chart symbolising the higher household costs reported in the Reuters poll.
What Happened
Reuters reported on 27 October 2026 that more than 500 economists surveyed globally this month had raised their 2027 inflation forecasts for 31 of the 50 economies covered. Growth forecasts were raised for 23 economies, according to the same poll, suggesting that forecasters do not expect a sharp downturn to do the work of taming prices. Inflation forecasts were raised for 15 of the 21 developed economies covered, a breadth that, Reuters noted, suggests inflation worries are spreading into economies that typically experience low price pressures.
The poll lands at a moment when the world's major central banks are all in focus in the same week. Reuters reported on 27 October that the United States Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, following an increase last month, even though markets are pricing in at least two more increases by mid-2027. The Bank of Japan is due to conclude a two-day meeting on Friday, and the European Central Bank is also in the frame, with economists expecting all three to stand pat on rates while their public comments are parsed for clues about what comes next.
One of the economists quoted by Reuters put the concern bluntly. Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC, said: "I am getting much more concerned about inflation again." She added: "The longer the situation evolves and escalates in the Middle East and the higher the broad basket of price pressures builds, the greater the likelihood that we get not just higher but more persistent inflation." The remark captures the poll's central shift: from treating the current price shock as a temporary energy story to worrying that it is broadening into something harder to reverse.
Illustration: A central bank building with rate arrows and a bond chart, symbolising the rate decisions facing policymakers this week.
Background
The inflation story in this poll has two engines running at once. The first is energy. Reuters reported that crude oil prices have stayed above $100 a barrel since 7 October, hit a six-month high of more than $117 last week, and are up more than 60% since the United States-Israeli war with Iran began almost eight months ago. Energy is not a niche input: it feeds into transport, food production, manufacturing and heating, so a sustained rise tends to leak into prices far beyond the petrol pump.
The second engine is resilience itself. Reuters reported that more than $1 trillion of investment in artificial intelligence technology globally since last year has made some economies more resilient at a time when cost-of-living pressures are squeezing households and shaping national politics. Strong investment and steady growth are welcome in themselves, but they also mean demand has not weakened enough to force prices down quickly. Forecasters who did not anticipate a quick end to the war are now sounding more concerned about an inflation resurgence, Reuters reported, particularly given that resilience.
Central banks, meanwhile, have moved only cautiously so far. Reuters reported that most central banks have raised interest rates only a few times or not at all in this episode. A global rout in bond markets in recent months has also tightened financial conditions through higher yields, doing some of the work that rate rises would normally do — but in a disorderly way that policymakers cannot easily control. That combination, modest official rate rises plus a market-driven tightening, is part of why the debate this week is as much about signals and credibility as about any single decision.
The credibility question was spelled out in Reuters' 27 October market coverage. John Velis, head of Americas strategy at BNY, was quoted as saying that while his team did not expect a rate move from the Federal Reserve this week, it would not be against a hike, adding: "We think maintaining credibility is paramount for the Fed." Reuters noted that the Fed's inflation target has been exceeded for well over 60 straight months, according to that coverage — a reminder of how long the overshoot has already lasted.
Why It Matters
If inflation proves persistent rather than passing, the consequences reach well beyond trading screens. For households, it means the cost-of-living squeeze lasts longer: wages must rise faster just to stand still, and the energy bills and food prices that have already climbed do not quickly fall back. Reuters' poll framing makes that political dimension explicit, noting that cost-of-living pressures are shaping national politics — a point underlined elsewhere in the week's news, from Brazil's market reaction to its election result to Britain's budget, due on Wednesday, where finance minister John Healey must balance bond investors' wishes against promises to ease costs for households.
For businesses, persistent inflation changes planning. Firms that expected borrowing costs to fall, or input prices to normalise, may instead face higher rates for longer and continued pressure on margins. For governments, it narrows the room for manoeuvre: big spending or tax-cutting budgets risk frightening bond markets that have already driven yields to multi-decade highs, while austerity risks deepening the household squeeze. The pound's position near a 17-month high against the euro ahead of Britain's budget, reported by Reuters on 27 October, shows how closely markets are watching each government's fiscal choices.
For central banks, the poll raises the stakes of communication. If they signal that they are relaxed about inflation while forecasters keep revising projections upward, they risk losing the credibility that helps anchor expectations. If they signal further hikes, they risk tightening into economies that are already absorbing an energy shock and a bond-market selloff. The poll does not settle that dilemma, but it documents how the professional consensus is moving: toward expecting the dilemma to last into next year.
Illustration: Oil barrels and a pipeline at sunset, symbolising the energy prices that Reuters links to persistent inflation.
What Happens Next
The immediate calendar is crowded. The Federal Reserve's decision comes on Wednesday, with markets watching Chair Kevin Warsh's comments for any signal about further increases. Britain's budget follows on the same day, with attention on how much fiscal headroom Healey leaves and whether any near-term borrowing increases are presented as one-offs. The Bank of Japan concludes its meeting on Friday, with markets pricing slightly better-than-even odds of a December hike, according to Reuters coverage, and watching Governor Ueda's tone for a hawkish shift.
Beyond this week, the key variables are the ones the poll itself highlights: whether oil stays above $100, whether the Middle East conflict escalates or eases, and whether price pressures broaden from energy into services and wages. If they do, the poll suggests, more central banks may be forced to raise rates more than they have so far. If energy prices ease and growth cools, the persistent-inflation warning may fade — but the poll's message is that forecasters are no longer counting on that benign outcome. Readers should also note what the poll is not: it is a survey of expectations, not a measurement of actual prices, and its forecasts will be revised again as new data arrive.
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FAQ
What did the Reuters poll actually find?
More than 500 economists surveyed in October 2026 raised their 2027 inflation forecasts for 31 of the 50 economies polled, and raised growth forecasts for 23 of them. Inflation forecasts rose for 15 of 21 developed economies covered.
Why are economists worried inflation will persist?
According to Reuters' reporting, the worry is that price pressures are broadening beyond energy. Oil has stayed above $100 a barrel since 7 October and is up more than 60% since the US-Israeli war with Iran began, while resilient growth, helped by more than $1 trillion of AI investment, means demand has not cooled enough to bring prices down quickly.
What did HSBC's Janet Henry say?
Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC, told Reuters she was "getting much more concerned about inflation again," warning that the longer the Middle East situation evolves and escalates, the greater the likelihood of higher and more persistent inflation.
What are central banks expected to do this week?
Reuters reported on 27 October that the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday after an increase last month, while the Bank of Japan concludes its meeting on Friday. Markets are pricing in at least two more Fed hikes by mid-2027, according to that coverage.
Does the poll mean inflation will definitely stay high?
No. A poll measures forecasters' expectations at a point in time, and those expectations change with new data. The poll is significant because it shows the direction of professional opinion — toward persistence — not because it guarantees an outcome.
Sources
- Reuters, "High inflation to persist globally into next year, Reuters poll shows," 27 October 2026.
- Reuters, "US stock futures muted as oil holds near April highs ahead of Fed decision," 27 October 2026.
- Reuters, "Yen slips ahead of central bank bonanza, dollar firms on tech rebound," 27 October 2026.
- Reuters, "Pound near 17-month high on euro a day ahead of British budget," 27 October 2026.
- Reuters, "Asian stocks surge as Anthropic IPO lifts sentiment ahead of earnings, central banks," 27 October 2026.
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