BUSAN, 30 October 2026 — United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Busan, South Korea, on Friday for their first face-to-face talks since Trump's return to office, with a fragile trade truce — covering tariffs, rare earth exports and American farm goods — at the top of the agenda.
The bilateral meeting, confirmed by the White House, takes place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, ahead of the main leaders' meeting scheduled for 31 October to 1 November in Gyeongju. Xi is attending the APEC gathering at the invitation of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and is also paying a state visit to South Korea from 30 October to 1 November, according to China's foreign ministry.
The stakes are high for both economies, and for the rest of the world. In recent weeks, Beijing has signalled tighter controls over rare earth exports, while Washington has threatened additional tariffs and new curbs on key technologies. Trump had at one point threatened to scrap the meeting amid the flare-up, but said on Wednesday that he hoped for a deal "on everything."
Illustration: United States and China flags at a summit meeting hall in Busan, South Korea.
What Happened
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a media briefing in Washington on Thursday that Trump will "participate in a bilateral meeting with President Xi" on 30 October in South Korea, at the end of a three-nation Asia trip that also took in Malaysia and Japan. The meeting is reported to be taking place in Busan, according to the South China Morning Post.
China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun confirmed Xi's attendance at the APEC summit and his state visit, and said China and the United States were maintaining close communication on a potential meeting between the two heads of state. Beijing had been more guarded than Washington in confirming the bilateral talks, even as the White House announced the date.
Speaking to reporters in Washington on Thursday, Trump said that during his talks with Xi, he will raise "some big issues" like the plight of US farmers, but that the "first question" he will ask him will be about fentanyl exports — referring to the US accusation that China has failed to curb precursor shipments linked to America's opioid crisis.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng met earlier in the week in Malaysia to lay the groundwork for the Trump-Xi meeting, according to the White House schedule reported in the run-up to the summit.
Background
The Busan meeting comes after months of escalating trade tension between the world's two largest economies. Rare earth elements — a group of minerals essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones and defence systems — have become the sharpest point of contention. China dominates the mining and processing of many of these materials, giving Beijing a powerful lever in any trade dispute.
Earlier in October, Beijing announced new export controls on five rare earth elements, adding to controls announced in April on seven others, including gallium and germanium, both critical for the defence and semiconductor industries. Washington, in turn, threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting in November if China did not ease its restrictions, and has tightened curbs on advanced technology exports.
American farmers have also felt the strain. China, once the largest buyer of US soybeans, sharply reduced its purchases during the trade dispute, leaving American growers searching for alternative markets. Any resumption of Chinese soybean imports would therefore be closely watched in farm states — though analysts caution that a return to buying alone would be, in the words of one assessment, "hardly a breakthrough."
Illustration: Cargo ships and containers at the port of Busan, a hub for trade between Asia and the world.
Why It Matters
The outcome in Busan will ripple far beyond the two countries. Tariffs and export controls between the United States and China affect supply chains, prices and investment decisions around the world — from electronics factories in Asia to car plants in Europe and farms in the American Midwest.
An early analysis of the summit's reported contours, published by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, described the emerging arrangement as "less a deal, more an uneasy truce." According to that analysis, US fentanyl-related tariffs on China were halved to 10%, bringing US tariff levels on imports from China closer to those applied to other Asian economies. In return, China was reported to have agreed to resume US soybean imports and to postpone export controls on the five rare earth elements announced earlier in October.
Crucially, however, the April controls on seven rare earths — including gallium and germanium — were reported to remain firmly in place, leaving China with what Bruegel called "a potent strategic lever for future disputes." Beijing also pressed, according to the analysis, for Washington to lift export controls on Nvidia's latest artificial intelligence semiconductors, the Blackwell B30A, but Trump was reported to have stood firm. And on Taiwan, Xi was reported to have sought a US assurance that Washington would not support formal Taiwanese independence — an assurance that, according to the analysis, did not materialise.
The reported agreement was also said to carry a one-year expiration date, underscoring its fragility. As Bruegel put it, the arrangement could unravel sooner — "perhaps abruptly" — should either side choose to withdraw.
What Happens Next
Several questions will determine whether the Busan meeting produces a lasting easing of tensions or merely a pause:
- Tariffs: Will the reported halving of fentanyl tariffs hold, and will the threatened 100% tariff be shelved?
- Rare earths: Will China follow through on postponing its October export controls, and what happens to the April controls that remain?
- Farm exports: Will Chinese soybean purchases resume at a scale that matters to US farmers, or remain symbolic?
- Technology: Will either side soften its curbs on advanced chips and other sensitive technology?
- The next meeting: Trump was reported to have said he would visit Beijing in April — a signal, if confirmed, that both sides want to keep talking.
Hours before meeting Xi, Trump also ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear testing — last carried out in 1992 — a move noted in the Bruegel analysis as a shift toward overt military signalling. The analysis also pointed to two announcements shortly before the Busan meeting: a US commitment to the Australia–United Kingdom–US (AUKUS) security arrangement, and US approval of a South Korean nuclear submarine. Both, it argued, reinforce the interpretation that Washington is seeking to tighten alliances even as it negotiates on trade.
Analysts in Washington have warned against expecting major breakthroughs. "Both sides are approaching the relationship with confidence. Both sides believe that the other needs them more than they do," a former senior US government official told the South China Morning Post. "Both sides believe they have escalation dominance — [a] very, very dangerous place to be."
Illustration: Rare earth mineral crystals and electronic components, symbols of the materials at the heart of the trade dispute.
For now, the Busan meeting has avoided the worst outcomes — no direct clash over Taiwan, no new deal on advanced chips — but it has also revealed, in Bruegel's assessment, US vulnerability in using economic pressure against China. The US gains are minimal, the analysis concluded, and come at the cost of exposing economic dependence on China, while China retains its supply-chain advantage, though with heightened awareness that the stakes — and the mutual mistrust — are higher than ever.
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FAQ
When and where are Trump and Xi meeting?
On Friday, 30 October 2026, in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC summit, according to the White House and reports from the South China Morning Post.
Why is this meeting significant?
It is the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since Trump's return to office, and it comes amid a trade dispute over tariffs, rare earth export controls and technology curbs that affects global supply chains.
What are rare earths, and why do they matter?
Rare earth elements are minerals essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones and defence systems. China dominates their mining and processing, giving it significant leverage in trade disputes.
What has been reported about the outcome?
According to analysis by Bruegel, the reported arrangement includes halved US fentanyl tariffs, resumed Chinese soybean imports and a postponement of China's October rare earth controls — but the April controls on seven rare earths remain, and the deal is said to carry a one-year expiration date.
What happens next?
Markets and governments will watch whether tariff relief and rare earth postponements hold, whether soybean purchases resume at scale, and whether a reported Trump visit to Beijing in April goes ahead.
Sources
- Bruegel, "The Trump–Xi summit: less a deal, more an uneasy truce" (analysis of the 30 October Busan meeting).
- White House briefing, via reporting: Trump to hold bilateral meeting with Xi on 30 October in South Korea; Trump comments on farmers and fentanyl.
- Chinese foreign ministry, via Metrovaartha reporting: Xi to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju and pay a state visit to South Korea from 30 October to 1 November.
- South China Morning Post, via reporting: Busan as the meeting location; analyst assessment of both sides' confidence.
- Reuters, via Bruegel citations: US fentanyl tariffs halved to 10%; Chinese rare earth export controls; US approval of a South Korean nuclear submarine.
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