WASHINGTON — Nearly 48 million Americans had already cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections by midday on Friday, 30 October 2026, setting a new record for early voting in a midterm election with days of early voting still to go before Election Day on Tuesday, 3 November, according to figures from the University of Florida's Election Lab reported by Reuters and other outlets.
Illustration: A long line of American voters waiting outside a polling station in autumn.
What Happened
The Election Lab had recorded 47,922,669 early votes nationwide by midday on 30 October, surpassing the previous midterm early-voting record of about 45.9 million ballots cast ahead of Election Day in 2022, according to the figures reported on Friday. The total covers ballots cast in person at early-voting sites and ballots returned by mail, and it was still rising as states continued to report new data. One tracker breakdown put the split at about 24.1 million ballots cast in person and 21.7 million returned by mail, though totals vary slightly between trackers as states report at different speeds.
An Associated Press analysis published as the record fell found a similar surge on a like-for-like basis: with five days left before Election Day, more than 43 million ballots had been cast, almost 10 million higher than at the comparable point in 2022. The AP found the biggest jumps in states with tight Senate contests that could decide control of the chamber for the final two years of President Donald Trump's presidency. Texas had logged more than 6 million early ballots by Wednesday, 28 October, with in-person turnout running about 50 per cent ahead of the same stage in 2022. North Carolina reported early voting up nearly 37 per cent on the same point four years ago, while South Carolina had already surpassed its entire 2022 early-vote total by Monday, with five days of early voting still to go, and posted an 83 per cent increase on the comparable 2022 figure, according to the AP analysis.
Other states set their own marks. In Georgia, early in-person voting broke the state's midterm record on Thursday, 29 October, and women accounted for 56 per cent of ballots cast by that day, compared with 44 per cent for men, according to figures cited in the reporting. In Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a tough re-election fight, advance ballots were running about two-thirds ahead of 2022 levels last week, according to the secretary of state's office. Florida had about 4.5 million early votes and North Carolina about 2.4 million, according to the OnPoint Politics figures cited by NoLabels. Michigan, holding its first midterm with early in-person voting statewide after voters approved it in November 2022, had about 409,000 more early votes than at the same point in 2022, a 32 per cent increase, the AP reported.
In states that record voters' party registration, registered Democrats made up about 44 per cent of early voters, compared with 31 per cent for Republicans and 25 per cent for unaffiliated voters and members of smaller parties, according to the Election Lab figures reported on Friday. The AP's own count of states that track party registration found roughly 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans among early voters, while cautioning that its figures are incomplete. Both sets of figures come with the same important caveat, repeated by election analysts in the reporting: party registration does not reveal which candidates a voter supported, and early-voting figures are not a prediction of the outcome.
Background
Midterm elections, held halfway through a president's four-year term, decide control of Congress, and the 2026 vote will settle which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate for the remainder of Trump's second term. Republicans currently lead both chambers, including the Senate by 53 seats to 47, according to the AP reporting. Every House seat is on the ballot, along with a third of the Senate, plus governorships and state offices that shape everything from election rules to abortion access, education and taxes in the states.
Early voting has expanded sharply in the United States over the past decade, and 2026 is the broadest midterm for access yet. Early in-person voting is available to all voters in 47 states and Washington, D.C., and 37 states plus D.C. allow anyone to vote by mail without an excuse, according to the figures cited by NoLabels. Connecticut is holding its first midterm with permanent early in-person voting, which began in 2024, and Michigan's first midterm under its statewide early-voting system is already showing the effect in the numbers. In 2022, about half of all midterm ballots were cast before Election Day; in 2026, that share looks set to be higher still.
The backdrop to the surge is a restless electorate. Reporting on Friday cited Trump's sagging popularity and public unhappiness about the high cost of living and the Iran war as factors hurting his fellow Republicans' chances of holding their congressional majorities, though analysts caution that early-vote composition alone cannot confirm that reading. One striking detail from Friday's reporting underlines how far early and mail voting has spread: the Vatican press office said Pope Leo XIV, the American-born pontiff, had cast a ballot by mail in the midterm elections, described as a historic first for a pope.
Illustration: A voter dropping a mail ballot into a secure ballot drop box outside a US elections office.
Why It Matters
A record early vote matters first as a measure of engagement. University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, who oversees the Election Lab, has said overall turnout could surpass 2022 and potentially rival 2018, the highest-turnout midterm in a century. The Election Lab figures also point to rising participation among Black and Hispanic voters in states that report racial and ethnic data, with particularly strong turnout in heavily Hispanic communities along the Texas-Mexico border, according to the reporting. If that pattern holds through Election Day, it would complicate any simple story about enthusiasm belonging to one party.
Second, the state-level pattern matters for control of the Senate. The sharpest increases are concentrated in states with fiercely contested Senate races, from Texas and North Carolina to Kansas, Maine and Michigan, each up more than 30 per cent on 2022 by the AP's count. Because Senate control can turn on a handful of seats, and because the chamber confirms judges and senior officials as well as passing legislation, turnout in those states carries national weight well beyond their own borders. The same logic applies in the House, where a small number of competitive districts will decide the majority.
Third, the record is a test of election administration under pressure. Election officials in several states reported long lines and record single days at early-voting sites, including a record day of more than 1,340 in-person voters in Douglas County, Nebraska, according to local reporting cited in the AP-based roundup. Systems built for a surge — more early-voting days, more drop boxes, more mail-ballot processing — are being used at a scale no previous midterm has demanded. How smoothly the final days and the count go will shape confidence in the result, whatever it is.
What Happens Next
Early voting continues through the weekend in most states, and the Election Lab total will keep climbing until polls close on Tuesday, 3 November. Tens of millions more Americans are still expected to vote on Election Day itself, and Republicans have historically recorded stronger participation on Election Day in some recent elections, which is one reason analysts warn against reading the early-vote lead as a forecast. The final early-vote tally, and the Election Day vote that follows it, will together determine the overall turnout figure — and whether McDonald's suggestion that 2026 could rival 2018 proves right.
After the polls close, attention will turn to counting. Mail ballots, which take longer to verify and tabulate in many states, mean that close races may not be called on election night, and officials have urged patience where margins are narrow. Legal challenges and recounts are also possible in the closest contests, as in past cycles. The results will decide not only the balance of power in Congress but also the political landscape for the remaining two years of Trump's presidency, including what legislation can pass, which nominees can be confirmed, and how the next presidential race takes shape.
For voters who have not yet cast a ballot, the practical message from election officials is simple: check your state's early-voting hours and Election Day polling place, bring the identification your state requires, and do not wait until the last hour. With a record already set before the weekend, the 2026 midterms have already made one piece of history; the rest will be decided by the voters still to come.
Illustration: The United States Capitol in Washington DC with voters walking toward it.
Sponsored: explore today's featured sponsored offers
FAQ
How many Americans had voted early by 30 October 2026?
47,922,669 early votes had been recorded nationwide by midday on 30 October, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, surpassing the previous midterm record of about 45.9 million in 2022.
When is Election Day in the 2026 US midterms?
Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Early voting continues in most states through the weekend before Election Day.
Do the early-voting figures show which party is winning?
No. In states that record party registration, registered Democrats made up about 44 per cent of early voters, Republicans 31 per cent and unaffiliated voters 25 per cent, but registration does not show which candidates a voter supported, and analysts warn against treating early figures as a prediction.
Which states saw the biggest early-voting increases?
Texas passed 6 million early votes with in-person turnout about 50 per cent ahead of 2022; North Carolina was up nearly 37 per cent; South Carolina surpassed its entire 2022 early-vote total days early; and Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas each rose more than 30 per cent, according to the Associated Press analysis.
Could overall turnout beat 2022?
Possibly. Election Lab head Michael McDonald has said turnout could surpass 2022 and potentially rival 2018, but analysts caution that higher early voting does not automatically mean higher overall turnout, since some voters may simply be voting earlier than they otherwise would.
Sources
The News (Reuters photograph and reporting), "US midterm early voting hits record 48 million", 30-31 October 2026; NoLabels, "Early Voting Breaks the Midterm Record: What 46 Million Ballots Tell Us About 2026", citing the University of Florida Election Lab and OnPoint Politics, 30 October 2026; Associated Press analysis of early voting, as reported by the Baltimore Banner and carried in the 31 October 2026 roundups; The Daily News Hub, "Nearly 48 Million Americans Vote Early in Record US Midterm Turnout", 30 October 2026.
Comments
Post a Comment