One Week to the US Midterms: Polls and Forecasters Point to a Democratic House as the Senate Stays on a Knife's Edge

WASHINGTON — With one week to go before Americans vote in the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, the latest polls and forecasts point in the same direction: Democrats are favoured to win back the House of Representatives, while the battle for the Senate remains a toss-up. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 26 found President Donald Trump's approval rating at 32 percent, up one point from a record low a week earlier, with registered voters favouring Democrats over Republicans by 47 percent to 36 percent on the generic congressional ballot.

The midterm elections will decide control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's second term. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats and 39 governors' races, according to election trackers. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, and losing either one would complicate the president's legislative agenda — a point the Reuters/Ipsos report itself notes.

Illustration: The United States Capitol building at dusk with a large ballot box and paper ballots in the foreground.

What Happened

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which closed on Monday, October 26, surveyed 1,679 US adults, including 1,280 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points for all adults and 3 points for registered voters, Reuters reported. The generic ballot gap of 11 percentage points between Democrats and Republicans was one point tighter than in the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on October 19. When undecided voters were asked which party they leaned toward, the Democratic lead narrowed further, to 50 percent against 41 percent.

Forecasters have moved in the same direction. The Cook Political Report, in race ratings published on October 23, described Democrats as "favoured outright" to win the 218 seats needed for a House majority, projecting that they would most likely flip between 12 and 22 seats for a total of 227 to 237, according to a summary of the ratings. In its final major pre-election shift, Cook moved 19 additional House races in the Democrats' direction and none toward Republicans, including six districts — four held by Republican incumbents — shifted from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat."

Decision Desk HQ, in a projection published on October 26, gave Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning the House, projecting a final count of 238 Democratic seats. Other forecasters cited in press coverage put the Democratic chance of House control higher still, at around 90 percent on prediction markets — figures that measure traders' expectations, not votes, and should not be confused with polling.

The Senate picture is far tighter. Decision Desk HQ put the Democratic chance of winning the Senate at 56 percent, projecting 51 seats, while another forecaster described the chamber as "on a knife's edge" at 54 percent. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for an outright Senate majority, and the closest races — in Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas — are polling within about three points, according to Poliwave figures cited in press coverage.

Background

Midterm elections, held midway through a president's term, have historically punished the party in the White House, and 2026 fits that pattern in the polling so far. Trump's approval rating has fallen through the year: the Reuters/Ipsos poll put it at 32 percent, while other polling averages cited in coverage put it at around 36 percent, with disapproval near 59 percent. The differences between pollsters reflect different methods and samples, but the direction is consistent — a president with low approval ratings heading into a midterm, and an opposition with a clear lead on the generic ballot.

Illustration: Diverse American voters queuing outside a polling station with flags and voting signs on an autumn morning.

The generic ballot — which asks voters which party they would support for Congress rather than naming individual candidates — is a national snapshot, not a prediction for individual races. As Reuters noted, it does not capture the state-by-state and district-by-district contests that actually decide control of the Senate and House, contests in which Republicans hold some structural advantages. That is why forecasters can favour Democrats for the House while still calling the Senate a toss-up.

The stakes extend beyond the two chambers. Governors' races in 39 states will shape redistricting fights, election administration and state policy for years. And control of the House in particular would give Democrats subpoena power and the ability to open investigations into the administration, a prospect that press coverage of the race has highlighted as one of the main consequences of a Democratic victory.

It is also worth noting what the polls are not. No votes have been counted yet, and the final week of a campaign can shift close races. Polls published in the final days before the election carry margins of error of several points, and the closest Senate contests are well within that range.

Why It Matters

Control of Congress will determine what the Trump administration can achieve in its final two years. With Republican majorities, the president has been able to advance his legislative priorities; with a Democratic House, much of that agenda would stall, and the administration would face sustained oversight. A Democratic Senate as well would block judicial and executive appointments and reshape the balance of power in Washington entirely.

The election also matters as a verdict on the president himself. Midterm elections are often read as a referendum on the incumbent, and Trump's approval rating — at or near record lows in Reuters/Ipsos polling — is the backdrop against which every House and Senate candidate is campaigning. Republican candidates in competitive districts must decide how closely to embrace a president whose national numbers are weak but whose base remains loyal.

For the rest of the world, the outcome will shape American foreign and economic policy. A divided government in Washington has historically meant less predictable trade policy, more contested defence spending and greater difficulty in passing international agreements — all of which matter to allies and trading partners watching the November 3 vote.

What Happens Next

The final week of campaigning runs through November 2, with both parties concentrating resources on the closest House districts and the handful of Senate races that will decide control. Early voting is already under way in many states, and turnout in those states will be watched as an early signal — though early-vote figures alone cannot predict the result.

Illustration: A stylized map of the United States with states highlighted in red and blue and question marks over toss-up states.

On election night, November 3, the first results will come from the East Coast, and the House picture should become clear relatively quickly if the forecasters are right. The Senate may take longer: several of the closest races are in states where mail ballots are counted after election day, and recounts are possible in the tightest contests.

Whatever the outcome, the new Congress will take office in January 2027, and the balance struck on November 3 will define the last two years of the Trump presidency. The polls point one way; the voters will have the final word.

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FAQ

When are the 2026 US midterm elections?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governors' races are on the ballot.

Who is favoured to win the House?

Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ favour Democrats to win the House, with Cook projecting a Democratic total of 227 to 237 seats and Decision Desk HQ projecting 238.

Is the Senate also leaning Democratic?

No — the Senate is rated a toss-up. Decision Desk HQ put the Democratic chance of Senate control at 56 percent, with the closest races in Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas polling within about three points.

What did the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll find?

Trump's approval stood at 32 percent, and registered voters favoured Democrats over Republicans by 47 percent to 36 percent on the generic ballot, narrowing to 50–41 percent once leaning undecided voters were included.

Why do midterm results matter for the rest of Trump's term?

Losing either chamber would complicate the president's legislative agenda in the final two years of his second term and give the opposition oversight and subpoena power.

Sources

• Reuters — "Trump approval rises from record low to 32% ahead of midterm election, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds," October 26, 2026.
• Cook Political Report race ratings, October 23, 2026, as summarised by News9, October 2026.
• Decision Desk HQ projections, October 26, 2026, as reported by News9 and NorthJersey.com.
• NorthJersey.com / USA Today Network — "Who is winning 2026 midterms? Polls show anti-Trump vote looms large," October 2026.