With just 16 days to go before the November 3 midterm elections, American voters are heading to the polls in record early-voting numbers while President Donald Trump faces the lowest approval ratings of his presidency — a combination that polls say could cost Republicans control of one or both chambers of Congress and reshape the final two years of his term.
What Happened
Illustration: the U.S. Capitol with ballot boxes and American flags ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
A wave of national polls released this week paints a bleak picture for the White House ahead of the 2026 midterms. An October AP-NORC survey, conducted October 8–12 with 1,119 adults and published October 15, found that only 36 percent of registered voters approve of how President Trump is handling his job, while 64 percent disapprove. When asked which party should control Congress, 47 percent said Democrats should run the House and 46 percent said Democrats should run the Senate, compared with 38 percent backing Republican control of either chamber.
The Fox News Poll released October 16 delivered the same headline figure — 36 percent approval — which the pollster said was Trump's lowest rating in its surveys across both of his presidential terms, down from 39 percent where he had held steady since May. His approval among Republicans stood at 76 percent, down 16 points since March 2025. On individual issues, just 22 percent approved of his handling of inflation (77 percent disapproved), while majorities disapproved on the economy, tariffs, foreign policy and immigration; only border security was evenly split.
The RealClearPolling average as of October 16 put Trump at 38.7 percent approval and 59.4 percent disapproval, drawing on surveys from more than a dozen major pollsters; a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 30 through October 5 put him even lower at 32 percent — that pollster's lowest mark ever for him.
Meanwhile, voting is already underway: Spectrum News reported October 14 that more than 4 million ballots had been cast, with early voting in Ohio nearly quadrupling compared with four years ago and Georgia logging a midterm-record 188,000-plus voters on its first day.
Democrats are also gaining on the generic congressional ballot: a Cygnal poll released October 13 showed them ahead by 9 points, and an Economist/YouGov poll released October 14 by 11 points. On the Kalshi prediction market, traders as of October 15 gave Democrats a 90 percent chance of winning House control and a 62 percent chance of taking the Senate.
Background
Illustration: voters waiting in line outside a polling station during early voting for the 2026 U.S. midterms.
Midterm elections — held two years into a president's term — are traditionally treated as a referendum on the party in the White House, and the president's party has historically lost seats. That pattern now confronts a Republican Party defending narrow majorities in both chambers: a 53-to-47 edge in the Senate and a slim majority in the House, where control could turn on just a handful of swing districts.
All 435 voting seats in the House are on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, along with 35 Senate seats — 33 regularly scheduled contests plus two special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill the remainder of the terms of Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Republicans hold 22 of the 35 Senate seats being contested. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate majority, a steep climb but one the Cook Political Report has made plausible by rating races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups.
Some battlegrounds are producing surprising numbers: in Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide office this century, a Marist poll found James Talarico leading Ken Paxton by 2 points; in Kansas, Adam Hamilton led incumbent Roger Marshall by 3 points in a YouGov survey.
The economy dominates the backdrop. In the AP-NORC poll, 85 percent of voters said the economy was among their most important issues and 84 percent said the same about the cost of living; 74 percent disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy and 79 percent of his handling of the cost of living.
Perhaps the most striking erosion is among Hispanic voters, an important part of Trump's 2024 coalition. Reuters/Ipsos found only 24 percent approving of his performance — his lowest level with the demographic in either term — and just 26 percent of Hispanic registered voters intending to vote Republican, versus 52 percent for Democrats.
Why It Matters
The outcome on November 3 will decide how the second half of Trump's presidency can function. If Democrats capture the House, they gain control of committee agendas, the power to subpoena administration officials and documents, and the ability to block the White House's legislative priorities on trade, taxation and immigration. A Democratic Senate would also give the opposition a say over judicial and executive-branch confirmations.
Beyond Washington, the results carry global weight. The midterms will shape the trajectory of U.S. tariff policy that has roiled markets and trading partners all year, the direction of immigration enforcement, and the durability of American foreign commitments — from support for Ukraine to engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Traders, diplomats and central bankers are watching the polls as closely as the campaigns.
The election is also a stress test of the new political map. Mid-decade redistricting since 2025 has improved Republican prospects in more districts than Democratic ones, according to analysts, potentially cushioning the party against a national Democratic wave. Whether that firewall holds — or whether the early-voting surge signals something bigger — is the question both campaigns are spending their final dollars to answer.
Finally, the Hispanic voter shift could redraw electoral calculations well beyond 2026. A demographic that backed Trump at 48 percent in 2024 is now giving him 24 percent approval, according to Reuters/Ipsos. If that movement holds through Election Day, strategists in both parties will spend years rethinking their assumptions.
What Happens Next
Illustration: a stylized U.S. electoral map with red and blue campaign signs and a polling trend chart.
Sixteen days remain until Election Day, and the closing stretch will bring the final advertising blitz, candidate debates and rallies in the handful of states and districts that will decide Congress. Registration deadlines have passed in some states while others offer same-day registration — voters should check their state election office or vote.gov for exact rules.
Early voting continues to expand through late October in most states, and the record pace so far — 4 million votes already cast with more than two weeks to go — suggests total turnout could be historically high for a midterm. If close races fall within tight margins, Georgia's required Senate runoff would be held 28 days later, on December 1.
Polls will keep coming, and individual surveys will bounce. What matters is the pattern: if the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot and Trump's sub-40 approval hold into the final week, history suggests Republicans will struggle to defend their majorities — though midterm outcomes are decided district by district, and the national mood alone does not settle the Senate map. Newly elected members of Congress will be sworn in on January 3, 2027, setting the stage for a new Speaker, new committee chairs and — depending on who wins — either two years of unified Republican government or a divided Washington that redefines the rest of the Trump presidency.
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FAQ
Q: When are the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?
A: Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats (including two special elections), 36 governorships and thousands of state and local offices are on the ballot. Early and mail voting is already underway in many states.
Q: What do the latest polls say about Trump's approval?
A: Multiple October polls put Trump's job approval in the mid-30s: AP-NORC and Fox News both found 36 percent approval (the Fox figure is his lowest ever in that pollster's surveys), Reuters/Ipsos found 32 percent, and the RealClearPolling average stood at 38.7 percent approve to 59.4 percent disapprove as of October 16.
Q: Can Democrats win back Congress in the midterms?
A: Polling and prediction markets say the House is very much in play — Democrats led the generic ballot by 9 to 11 points in mid-October polls and were given a 90 percent chance on the Kalshi market. The Senate is tougher: Democrats need a net gain of four seats, but Kalshi traders still gave them a 62 percent chance as of October 15.
Q: Which Senate races are the most competitive?
A: The Cook Political Report rates Senate contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups. Recent state polls showed a Democrat narrowly leading in Texas and Kansas — two states Republicans normally win comfortably.
Q: How many people have already voted?
A: More than 4 million Americans had already cast ballots by mid-October, according to Spectrum News. Ohio reported early voting at nearly four times the pace of four years ago, and Georgia set a midterm record with over 188,000 voters on its first day of early voting.
Sources
- AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research (Oct 15, 2026) — 36% Trump approval; 47% want Democrats to run the House vs. 38% Republicans; 85% name the economy a top issue.
- Fox News Poll (Oct 16, 2026) — 36% approval, Trump's lowest in Fox polling across both terms; just 22% approve on inflation.
- Reuters/Ipsos (Oct 6, 2026) — 32% approval, the pollster's lowest ever for Trump; Hispanic approval at a record-low 24%.
- RealClearPolling average (Oct 16, 2026) — 38.7% approve, 59.4% disapprove across major national pollsters.
- Economist/YouGov and Cygnal polls (Oct 14, 2026) — Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 11 and 9 points.
- Kalshi prediction market (Oct 16, 2026) — traders price Democrats at 90% to take the House and 62% for the Senate.
- Spectrum News (Oct 14, 2026) — 4M+ early votes cast; Ohio early voting nearly 4x its pace four years ago; Georgia first-day midterm record of 188,000+ voters.
- Marist University and YouGov polls (Oct 14, 2026) — a Democrat leads by 2 points in Texas and by 3 points in Kansas.
- Cook Political Report ratings (Oct 2026) — Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas rated toss-ups.
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