GENEVA — The current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength — "literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades" — the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on October 21, 2026, forecasting that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 to January 2027, with floods, drought, wildfire smoke and extreme heat expected to multiply as the event peaks toward the end of 2026 and its impacts last well into 2027.
Illustration: An illustration of warm ocean currents in the tropical Pacific beneath swirling storm clouds.
What Happened
The WMO released its new Global Seasonal Climate Update on October 21, 2026, together with a call for early humanitarian action. The update forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific — the epicentre of El Niño — may rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 to January 2027. The WMO declares an El Niño when the sea surface temperature anomaly in that region reaches 0.5 degrees Celsius, so a forecast of 3.8 degrees is far beyond the threshold.
"This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said at a joint press conference with Tom Fletcher, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. The event is very likely to persist through February 2027, according to the outlook.
The message from Geneva was deliberately two-sided: the forecast is alarming, but its consequences are not fixed. "A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster. We have the science, the forecasts and the early warning systems to save lives and protect livelihoods. What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities," Saulo said.
Background
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which warm water spreads across the tropical Pacific, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. A very strong event disrupts normal patterns on a large scale: it can bring severe drought to some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, and increased heat across large parts of the world, the WMO explained. Because the world's oceans are already at record warmth, more stored heat is available to enter the atmosphere, amplifying the effect.
The October 21 outlook points to a patchwork of regional risks rather than a single global outcome. It identifies heightened risks of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of East Africa during the October–December rainy season, and drier conditions in Southern Africa from November that could affect crops, water supplies and livelihoods. Southeast Asia faces heat, rainfall deficits and wildfire and smoke hazards. In the Americas, parts of western South America have already seen severe flooding, while drought risk is rising in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon, according to the outlook as reported by Devdiscourse.
Extreme events are already occurring and are expected to multiply and cascade as El Niño intensifies, the WMO said. That matters most for people with the least protection: refugees, displaced people and communities living in conflict, whose housing, water, sanitation and health services are already under pressure, the organisation noted.
Illustration: A cracked dry field with withered crops under a hot sun, symbolising El Niño drought.
Why It Matters
The practical importance of the outlook is timing. Seasonal outlooks describe regional tendencies rather than individual events, so national and regional forecasts — and expert interpretation of them — are essential to pinpoint where and when action is needed, the WMO said. A key channel for turning the outlook into practice is the WMO Coordination Mechanism for humanitarians, whose role was showcased at a recent session of the WMO's services commission.
"The window for preparedness is still open in many regions. Extreme weather conditions do not need to translate into humanitarian emergencies or into casualties, but this window will not remain open indefinitely," Saulo said. In plain terms: money, supplies, and evacuation and health plans put in place now cost far less — in cash and in lives — than emergency relief after floods or failed harvests.
The outlook also matters for the climate talks ahead. It arrives weeks before the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, where countries will debate stronger climate pledges. A record El Niño does not by itself prove anything about long-term warming, but it sharpens the question negotiators face: how to protect people from extremes that are already arriving, while cutting the emissions that make them more likely.
Illustration: Aid workers stacking sandbags beside a flooded street during flood preparations.
What Happens Next
The event is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, with its impacts felt long after that and very likely persisting through February 2027. Governments and aid agencies are being urged to act on the outlook now: activating early warnings, pre-positioning food, water and medical supplies, releasing standby financing, and protecting water supplies and crops in the regions the outlook flags — East Africa's rainy season, Southern Africa's dry months ahead, Southeast Asia's fire season, and drought-prone parts of the Americas.
For people living in the regions named, the advice is local, not global: follow national and local forecasts and official warnings, which carry the detail the seasonal outlook cannot. For everyone else, the WMO's warning is a reminder that the strongest El Niño in four decades of monitoring is not a distant forecast — it is already under way, and the weeks before its peak are the cheapest time to prepare.
Sponsored: explore today's featured sponsored offers
FAQ
What did the WMO warn on October 21, 2026?
The World Meteorological Organization warned that the current El Niño could be unprecedented in strength, with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures forecast to reach 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
When will El Niño peak?
According to the WMO outlook, El Niño will peak toward the end of 2026, with impacts felt long after that, and the event is very likely to persist through February 2027.
Which regions face the highest risks?
East Africa faces heavy rainfall and flooding in the October–December rainy season; Southern Africa faces drier conditions from November; Southeast Asia faces heat, rainfall deficits and wildfire smoke; and parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon face rising drought risk.
Does a strong El Niño guarantee a humanitarian disaster?
No. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said a powerful El Niño "does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster" if governments and aid agencies act decisively, using forecasts and early warning systems to protect the most vulnerable.
What should people do with this outlook?
Follow national and local forecasts and official warnings for specific places and dates, since the seasonal outlook describes regional tendencies rather than individual events — and support early action, such as pre-positioned supplies and standby financing, before extremes hit.
Sources
- World Meteorological Organization, "El Niño puts humanitarian weather services in the spotlight," October 21, 2026 (wmo.int).
- WMO news release via Scimex, "El Niño event 'literally off the charts' in coming months, WMO says," October 21, 2026.
- Devdiscourse, "WMO Urges Early Humanitarian Action as El Niño Threatens Floods, Drought and Extreme Heat," October 2026.
Comments
Post a Comment