WASHINGTON, 28 October 2026 — Global commodity prices are set to surge 23 per cent in 2026, the World Bank warned on Wednesday, as rising energy prices, disrupted shipping through the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and strong demand for safe-haven assets such as gold combine into what its economists describe as several major shocks hitting markets at once.
Illustration: An oil tanker sailing through a narrow sea strait at dusk.
What Happened
The World Bank released its twice-yearly Commodity Markets Outlook on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, two days before foreign ministers from the world's 20 largest economies were due to gather in Atlanta, Georgia, for a meeting focused on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The report's headline finding is stark: prices for oil, natural gas, food and metals all rose sharply this year, and the overall commodity price index is expected to climb 23 per cent in 2026.
Energy led the surge. Global energy prices jumped 32 per cent in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the report. With oil output down, Brent crude prices were expected to remain elevated in the near term, averaging 92 dollars per barrel for the year — and would have been higher still if oil demand were not forecast to fall 2.5 per cent this year, the third-largest drop behind the 2020 COVID shock and the 1980 oil crisis.
Food prices were set to rise just over 10 per cent in 2026, driven by grain shipment disruptions caused by hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, and by another 7 per cent or more in 2027 — a cumulative increase of nearly 18 per cent. Fertilizer prices were expected to rise 14 per cent in 2026 on a surge in urea prices, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027. Metals prices were projected to rise 25 per cent and hit a new high, with aluminium, copper and tin all setting new records, while precious metals prices were projected to surge 40 per cent amid elevated demand for safe-haven assets.
"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist. "Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth."
Background
Commodity markets have been under strain for years, but the World Bank argues the current moment is unusually dangerous because the shocks are arriving together rather than one at a time. The war in the Middle East has disrupted cargo shipping and depleted global oil stocks, while fighting in the Black Sea region has complicated the grain shipments on which many importing countries depend. At the same time, strong demand for gold and other safe-haven assets reflects geopolitical and policy uncertainty, and booming investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres has tightened metals markets.
The report notes that global oil supply is expected to drop 5.2 per cent in 2026, the biggest fall in four decades outside the 2020 global recession. That supply squeeze is a central reason energy prices have stayed high even as demand softens. Meanwhile, the bank warned that the global economy is more vulnerable to future supply shocks than usual precisely because stockpiles have already been run down.
The World Bank also pointed to a looming weather risk: forecasts for what could be the worst El Niño weather effect since 1950. El Niño warms the Pacific and disrupts rainfall patterns worldwide, and the bank said it could keep food commodity prices elevated even as other prices ease.
Illustration: A grain export port with cargo ships being loaded beside wheat silos.
Why It Matters
The surge matters most for the world's poorest people. When food, fuel and fertilizer all become more expensive at once, households in low-income countries spend a larger share of their income on essentials, and governments face harder choices between subsidising prices and protecting public finances. The World Bank said it was focused on protecting the world's poorest people and supporting low-income countries already grappling with heavy debt burdens — and reported that it had already provided 8.7 billion dollars in low-cost loans and other aid to 25 countries negatively affected by the war in the Middle East.
There is also a direct inflation risk for richer economies. The bank warned that continued shocks could keep food prices elevated, raising the prospect of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy — at a moment when central banks in several major economies are already weighing whether to raise interest rates again. The Bank of Canada, for example, raised its key rate to 2.5 per cent on the same day the World Bank report appeared, citing persistently elevated oil prices and refinery margins.
The metals story points to a longer structural shift. Record prices for aluminium, copper and tin reflect not only supply disruptions but also strong demand from the clean-energy transition and the artificial intelligence build-out, as data centres, grids and electric vehicles consume ever more metal. That demand is unlikely to fade quickly, which means metals markets could stay tight even if geopolitical tensions ease.
What Happens Next
The World Bank expects some relief in 2027, with overall commodity prices easing by 7 per cent. But that forecast comes with a large warning: the easing depends on shocks not getting worse. In an adverse scenario combining a record El Niño, more Black Sea grain shipment disruptions, escalation in the Middle East conflict and ongoing damage to Russian oil infrastructure, food prices could rise 12 per cent higher than expected — a shock the bank said could trigger a food crisis like the one seen in the early 2010s, when more than 40 million additional people were pushed into extreme poverty.
All eyes now turn to the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta on 30 October, where the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine top the agenda, and to the months ahead, when the strength of the expected El Niño will become clearer. For households and businesses, the report's message is that the era of cheap commodities is not returning soon — and that the next shock may already be forming.
Illustration: Gold bars and coins on a trading desk with rising market charts.
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FAQ
How much are commodity prices expected to rise in 2026?
By 23 per cent overall, according to the World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook released on 28 October 2026, with energy up 32 per cent, metals up 25 per cent, precious metals up 40 per cent and food up just over 10 per cent.
What is driving the surge?
Several shocks at once: rising energy prices, cargo shipping disruptions during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea, strong safe-haven demand for gold, and surging demand for metals from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres.
Why is the World Bank worried about El Niño?
Forecasts point to what could be the worst El Niño effect since 1950. El Niño disrupts rainfall worldwide and makes it harder for carbon sinks and crops to cope, which could keep food prices elevated even as other commodity prices ease.
Will prices fall in 2027?
The bank expects overall commodity prices to ease by 7 per cent in 2027, but warns that an adverse scenario — a record El Niño plus more war-related disruptions — could push food prices 12 per cent higher than expected instead.
Who is hit hardest by high commodity prices?
The world's poorest people and low-income countries with heavy debt burdens, according to the World Bank, which said it had already provided 8.7 billion dollars in low-cost loans and aid to 25 countries affected by the Middle East war.
Sources
- Reuters, "World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks", 28 October 2026
- World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (as reported by Reuters)
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