Australia Told It Cannot 'Credibly Lead' COP31 While Expanding Coal and Gas, as Canada Faces the Same Credibility Test

CANBERRA — More than 500 Australian academics have told Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that Australia cannot “credibly lead on climate abroad” while it keeps approving new and expanded coal and gas projects, days before the country takes a leading role at the COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey.

The open letter, reported by Australian Associated Press on 2 November 2026, lands at an awkward moment for two of the countries heading to the summit. Australia will run the COP31 negotiations, while Canada arrives presenting itself as a climate leader despite a string of domestic policy rollbacks — a contrast that, critics say, will test whether either country's words in Antalya match its actions at home.

Illustration: Delegates gathered at a UN climate summit hall, with country flags and a large globe backdrop. This is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.

What Happened

According to AAP, more than 500 Australian-based academics from universities and research institutes in every state and territory signed a five-page letter to Albanese urging the government to stop new coal and gas approvals. The signatories include Climate Change Authority board member Lesley Hughes, Climate Analytics founder Bill Hare, and veteran climate scientist David Karoly.

The letter calls for a binding timetable to phase out coal, gas and oil, a ban on new and expanded fossil fuel projects — including those in the Hunter Valley and Beetaloo — and international agreement on deadlines to transition away from fossil fuels. It cites the United Nations' recent finding that more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming has become unavoidable, and research showing Australia ranked among the OECD nations with the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita.

“We argue that Australia cannot credibly lead on climate abroad nor ensure national nor regional security while it expands coal and gas at home,” the letter said, as quoted by AAP. “We ask you to read this letter as the considered judgement of the collective expertise and conscience of your nation's academy, whose work is to understand these systems… and to act on them.”

Professor Hughes, a lead author of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, was quoted as saying no government could credibly claim to be serious about the climate crisis while actively contributing to its cause, and describing Australia as a leading exporter of climate pollution that must urgently transition out of the fossil fuel industry.

University of Notre Dame Indigenous knowledge researcher Anne Poelina said she signed because she wanted Albanese to listen to frontline communities fighting damaging fossil fuel projects, including a proposal for fracking in the Kimberley. “We want young people to have a future and a climate chance,” she said.

The letter also arrives as the federal government considers the future of the Hunter Valley Operations north and south mine extensions, which were approved by the New South Wales Independent Planning Commission but still require federal environmental approval, according to AAP.

Illustration: Academics and community members presenting a climate letter outside parliament, with coal mine and gas plant silhouettes in the background. This is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.

Background

COP31, the annual UN climate conference, is scheduled to run from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey. Australia's Energy Minister Chris Bowen is to serve as president of the negotiations, while Albanese is expected to attend the summit, AAP reported.

The summit takes place against a sobering scientific backdrop. A UN report last month concluded that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement — is now impossible because emissions have not come down fast enough, according to reporting on the COP31 preparations. Discussions in Antalya are therefore expected to focus on how to keep warming as far below 2 degrees Celsius as possible by 2100, and on the finance, adaptation and methane measures that could still bend the emissions curve.

Canada's path to Antalya illustrates the same tension from a different direction. The Canadian Press reported on 2 November that Ottawa will present itself as an international climate leader at COP31, even as Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has rolled back several climate policies. Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin will attend the first week of talks, while Carney will not attend the leaders' summit at the top of the meeting, officials told a technical briefing for journalists on Monday.

Canadian officials said Dabrusin will co-convene a ministerial meeting with the European Union on the Global Methane Pledge, a group of 159 countries committed to collectively cutting methane emissions by 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030. Officials described methane mitigation as a high-impact, cost-effective way to address emissions, and pointed to fugitive methane reductions as the main driver of lower oil and gas sector emissions in 2025 despite higher production, according to Canada's latest national emissions report cited by The Canadian Press.

But the same briefing highlighted how far Canada remains from its own targets. Government figures show Canada is nowhere close to meeting its commitment to cut emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels, and other reports suggest net-zero by 2050 is also off the table, The Canadian Press reported.

Why It Matters

The credibility question matters because COP31 is, in large part, a negotiation about trust. Countries are asked to accept shared timetables, finance commitments and methane pledges — and the countries chairing or championing those efforts are judged first on what they do at home.

In Australia, the academics' argument is blunt: approving new fossil fuel supply while presiding over climate negotiations undermines the negotiating position itself, and, in their words, regional security as well. Australia is a major fossil fuel exporter, so its domestic approvals are read abroad not as a local planning matter but as a signal about global supply.

In Canada, the credibility test runs through a list of reversals catalogued by The Canadian Press. Carney eliminated the consumer carbon price in March 2025, on his first day in office; his government weakened the industrial carbon pricing system through an agreement with Alberta in May, repealed the electric vehicle sales mandate, moved to cancel the oil and gas emissions cap, and delayed methane regulations in Alberta. In June, major environment groups including the David Suzuki Foundation, Ecojustice, Greenpeace Canada, Nature Canada and Environmental Defence sought meetings over what they called urgent concerns about moves to weaken environmental laws and procedures.

Just last week, Canada's environment commissioner found that in November 2024 the government abandoned work on a 2021 pledge to ban thermal coal exports, without any record of a directive to do so. Officials have since said the work is only “paused,” though the commissioner's report said Ottawa formalised the end of the work in August 2025 as part of budget cuts. Government officials declined during Monday's briefing to say whether Canada had informed international partners that the coal-export ban work had ended or been paused.

Carney himself acknowledged the trade-off in a video in June, saying federal climate policy under former prime minister Justin Trudeau was too expensive and divisive, and that emissions would be higher in the next few years than projected under the previous plan. “But in my judgment, that plan was not sustainable over the long term,” he said.

Illustration: Canadian oil sands and pipelines under a hazy sky, with methane monitoring equipment and wind turbines in the distance. This is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.

What Happens Next

All eyes now turn to Antalya, where the talks open on 9 November. Australia's handling of pending fossil fuel decisions — including the Hunter Valley extensions awaiting federal environmental approval — will be watched as a live test of the academics' letter, not just as a domestic file.

For Canada, the first week will show whether its methane pitch lands. Dabrusin's co-convened ministerial meeting on the Global Methane Pledge offers Ottawa a concrete deliverable to point to, but delegates and advocates are likely to press officials on the delayed domestic methane regulations and the abandoned thermal coal export ban.

More broadly, COP31 will have to grapple with the UN's finding that 1.5 degrees Celsius is now unavoidable. That shifts the negotiation from preventing overshoot to limiting how high temperatures peak and for how long — a question that depends, as the small-island and scientific communities have stressed, on whether capital for the green transition is mobilised at scale and speed.

If Australia and Canada leave Antalya with agreements they cannot defend at home, the credibility critique that arrived a week before the summit will only grow louder. If they return with binding phase-out timetables, enforced methane rules and finance commitments that match their rhetoric, the letter and the briefings of 2 November will read, in hindsight, as the moment the pressure finally worked.

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FAQ

What did the 503 Australian academics ask for?

They called for a binding timetable to phase out coal, gas and oil, a ban on new and expanded fossil fuel projects including those in the Hunter Valley and Beetaloo, and international agreement on deadlines to transition away from fossil fuels.

When and where is COP31?

COP31, the annual UN climate conference, is scheduled for 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey, with Australia's Chris Bowen serving as president of the negotiations.

Why is Australia's role at COP31 controversial?

Because Australia will run the negotiations while continuing to approve coal and gas projects, academics argue it cannot credibly lead on climate abroad while expanding fossil fuels at home.

What is Canada's focus at COP31?

Canada says it will promote methane mitigation, with Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin co-convening a ministerial meeting on the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut methane emissions 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030.

Is Canada on track for its climate targets?

According to The Canadian Press, government figures show Canada is nowhere close to its commitment to cut emissions 40 per cent from 2005 levels, and other reports suggest net-zero by 2050 is also off the table.

Sources

• Australian Associated Press, “Australia cannot 'credibly lead' COP31 without reform,” 2 November 2026.
• The Canadian Press (via Winnipeg Free Press), “Canada presenting itself as climate leader at COP31, despite policy rollbacks,” 2 November 2026.
• United Nations Environment Programme, Emissions Gap findings on 1.5 degrees Celsius, as cited in COP31 reporting, October 2026.