ANTALYA — Nearly 50% more children were exposed to severe climate disasters each year over the past five years than in the five years before, according to new analysis from Save the Children released on Monday, 9 November 2026, as the COP31 United Nations climate conference opened in Antalya, Türkiye. The findings, published on ReliefWeb, show that the climate crisis is reaching children faster, more often and with greater force than it did in the years immediately after the Paris Agreement came into force — and that the youngest and poorest are paying the highest price.
An average of 330 million children a year experienced severe heatwaves, droughts, tropical cyclones and particularly extreme rainfall each year between January 2022 and September 2026, the analysis found — up from 222 million a year between 2017 and 2022, a rise of almost half in a single five-year comparison. In the first nine months of 2026 alone, about 205 million children were exposed to severe climate events, and because the data runs only to September, Save the Children says the contrast will likely be even more striking by year-end.
Looked at more broadly, one in three children worldwide — 911 million children — have been exposed to climate disasters, severe or less severe, since 2022, a 17% increase on the preceding five years. Behind each number is a child whose schooling, health or home was disrupted. The World Meteorological Organization said in its State of the Climate report, also released on Monday, that 2026 is on track to be one of the four hottest years on record.
Illustration: Children in a classroom disrupted by extreme heat — heatwave school closures raise dropout risk, with girls at higher risk, according to Save the Children.
What Happened
Save the Children released its analysis on the opening day of COP31, the annual UN climate conference, which runs from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya and brings together nearly 200 countries. The timing was deliberate: the organisation wants the negotiators in Antalya to confront, in hard numbers, what a warming climate is already doing to the world's children before they begin two weeks of talks on emissions cuts, adaptation and finance.
The headline finding is the near-50% jump in children's exposure to severe climate disasters. The analysis compares January 2017 to December 2021 — the five years shortly after the Paris Agreement came into force in November 2016 — with January 2022 to September 2026. Across the second period, an average of 330 million children a year faced at least one severe climate hazard: a severe heatwave, prolonged drought, a tropical cyclone of hurricane strength, or rainfall so extreme it would normally be expected only once in 50 years. In the earlier period, the average was 222 million a year.
In 2026 alone, about 205 million children were exposed to severe climate events in just the first nine months of the year. Counting severe and less severe events together, total exposure since 2022 reaches 911 million children — one in three on the planet, and 17% more than in the preceding five years.
The analysis also names the places where children are most at risk. Western Europe was the worst-hit region in 2026, where one out of two children faced severe weather events amid a succession of record-breaking heatwaves that made it the region's hottest summer on record. In the Pacific and East Asia, meanwhile, more children than anywhere else in the world experience severe climate disasters: an average of 75 million children — one in seven — have faced such events each year since 2017. The Pacific Islands remain on the frontlines of rising sea levels and increasingly intense storms.
Save the Children paired the numbers with the voices of young people living through them. Haruka, 17, a NextGen Youth Ambassador and climate campaigner from Vanuatu, said: "It's important for the perspectives of young people from the Pacific and Australia to be heard at pre-COP and COP because these are the spaces where decisions about climate change are being made and decision about our futures and the world that we are going to inherit. For us in the Pacific we are at the forefront of the climate crisis. We bear the brunt of climate change and it's important for us to be heard and for people to recognise that young people are being impacted by this issue."
Shruti Agarwal, Senior Advisor Climate Change and Sustainable Economies at Save the Children UK, said: "Across Africa, Asia and around the world, children are being pushed to the frontlines of a climate crisis they did not create. Every flood, drought, heatwave and storm steals more of their safety, education, health and hope for the future, and these disasters are only getting more severe. Yet leaders continue to make decisions that fail to match the scale and urgency of this crisis." She added: "Every delay puts more children at risk. At COP31, governments must agree collectively to address the impacts of climate change on children, invest in their future, and put their rights, needs and voices at the heart of every climate decision. Children cannot wait."
Background
To understand the figures, it helps to know what they measure. The analysis counts children's exposure to four hazards, each with a defined threshold: a heatwave means at least three days in a row with day and night temperatures among the hottest 1% for that place (severe: at least six heatwave days); drought means at least three months of severe dryness, SPEI-3 at or below −1.5 (severe: over 12 months for at least half the year); a tropical cyclone means winds of at least 63 km/h (severe: at least 119 km/h, hurricane or typhoon strength); extreme rain means a day at least as heavy as the local 1-in-10-year level (severe: the 1-in-50-year level). These are exposure figures — children who lived through such events, not only those injured or displaced — and the comparison tests whether the years since the Paris Agreement have become safer for children. On this evidence, they have not.
This article deliberately does not repeat several recent stories on this blog. It is not a report on the opening of COP31 itself, covered earlier from Antalya; not the World Meteorological Organization's assessment that 2026 is likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record, reported separately and cited here only as context; not the UN Environment Programme's Adaptation Gap Report, the El Niño-driven floods in the Horn of Africa, the investigation into methane from a landfill in Türkiye, Amnesty International's COP31 fossil-fuels findings, or the story of the villagers of İkizköy resisting coal expansion. This one is about a single new dataset: how many children climate disasters are reaching, how fast that number is growing, and what Save the Children says must change at COP31.
The legal backdrop has shifted in children's favour this year, even as the physical risks have grown. In May 2026, the UN General Assembly adopted a landmark resolution supporting the International Court of Justice's 2025 advisory opinion, which established that states have a legal obligation to protect the climate system and affirmed that countries must uphold children's rights when addressing climate change. Vanuatu — one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world — spearheaded the initiative. Earlier in 2026, Save the Children opened a climate-resilient classroom built using container architecture in Vanuatu, after a funding boost by two adventurers, to keep children learning even when disasters strike — schooling is often one of the first things to stop in a cyclone or flood, and one of the last to restart.
The Paris Agreement provides the yardstick. Agreed in December 2015 and in force since November 2016, it commits countries to holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C — the goal Save the Children's call for an urgent fossil-fuel phase-out is aligned with. The comparison is therefore a test of whether a decade of climate promises has made children safer. On the numbers released today, it has not: 330 million a year, against 222 million before.
Illustration: A Pacific island coastal village facing rising seas and an intense storm. Pacific Island nations remain on the frontline of sea-level rise.
Why It Matters
Children are among the most vulnerable to climate change. Their developing bodies are less able to withstand extreme weather, and the disruptions caused by climate shocks have lasting consequences for their health, education and wellbeing: air pollution from wildfires can significantly contribute to pneumonia and respiratory diseases in children, while school closures due to heatwaves increase the risk of dropouts, with girls at higher risk — a lost term can become a lost education.
The geography matters too. That Western Europe — one of the world's richest regions — was worst-hit in 2026, with one in two children facing severe weather events, shows no country has adapted its way out of this problem. But the burden is heaviest where children contributed least to causing it: in the Pacific and East Asia, an average of 75 million children a year — one in seven — have faced severe climate disasters every year since 2017, more than anywhere else. For Pacific Island children, sea-level rise and intensifying storms are the conditions of daily life, which is why Vanuatu's campaign for legal recognition of states' climate obligations carries such weight.
What Happens Next
All eyes are now on the COP31 negotiations in Antalya, which continue until 20 November. Save the Children is calling on governments, corporations and policymakers to put children at the centre of climate decisions: an urgent phase-out of fossil fuel use and subsidies, aligned with the 1.5°C Paris goal; education made a priority in climate discussions, so every child can realise their right to learn in a safe environment even after a climate disaster; and high-quality climate finance from high-income countries and historical emitters to lower-income countries, grounded in child rights and climate justice.
Whether those calls are answered will be judged in the conference's final texts — and, more importantly, in next year's numbers. Because the 2026 data runs only to September, the final tally will be higher still, and if the trend of the past five years continues, the next comparison will show more children, not fewer, in the path of severe heat, drought, cyclone and flood.
Illustration: Children seeking shade and cooling during Western Europe's hottest summer on record, when one in two children faced severe weather events.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many more children are hit by severe climate disasters now than five years ago?
Nearly 50% more: an average of 330 million children a year faced severe heatwaves, droughts, tropical cyclones and particularly extreme rainfall between January 2022 and September 2026, up from 222 million a year in 2017–2022, according to Save the Children.
How many children have been exposed to climate disasters since 2022?
One in three children worldwide — 911 million — have been exposed to climate disasters, severe or less severe, since 2022, a 17% increase on the preceding five years. In the first nine months of 2026 alone, about 205 million children faced severe climate events.
Which region was worst hit in 2026?
Western Europe: one in two children faced severe weather events amid record-breaking heatwaves and the region's hottest summer on record. Over the longer period, the Pacific and East Asia have the highest numbers — an average of 75 million children, or one in seven, each year.
How is this different from the COP31 opening story or the WMO hottest-year report?
Those were separate stories: the COP31 opening article covered the conference itself, and the WMO report covered 2026's place among the hottest years on record. This article is about one new dataset — Save the Children's analysis of children's exposure to climate disasters — and what it asks governments to do at COP31.
What is Save the Children asking governments to do at COP31?
Urgently phase out fossil fuel use and subsidies in line with the 1.5°C Paris goal; make education a priority in climate discussions so children can keep learning safely after disasters; and provide high-quality climate finance from high-income countries and historical emitters to lower-income countries, grounded in child rights and climate justice.
Sources
- Save the Children, "COP31: Climate disasters hit nearly 50% more children a year in the last five years – Save the Children analysis", ReliefWeb, 9 November 2026. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/cop31-climate-disasters-hit-nearly-50-more-children-year-last-five-years-save-children-analysis
- World Meteorological Organization, State of the Global Climate 2026 (2026 among the four hottest years on record, cited as context).
- United Nations General Assembly, landmark resolution of May 2026 supporting the International Court of Justice's 2025 advisory opinion on states' obligations on climate change.
- International Court of Justice, Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, 2025.
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP31, Antalya, Türkiye, 9–20 November 2026.
- Save the Children, climate-resilient classroom in Vanuatu, 2026, as reported in the ReliefWeb release above.
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