ACCRA — Ghana's Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that a strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is set to bring a hotter, drier and dustier dry season to Ghana from late November 2026, with the most intense heat stress expected in the north of the country between February and April 2027. The agency says the event is intensifying and is expected to peak between now and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of next year.
The warning, published on 1 November 2026, urges farmers, households and health services to prepare now: below-normal rainfall is forecast across most of the country, bushfire and water-shortage risks are set to rise, and the hot, dry and dusty conditions could increase the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana. At the same time, GMet cautions that sudden heavy downpours and localised flooding remain possible in the south, even in a drier-than-average season.
Illustration: A dry, dusty landscape in northern Ghana during a hot dry season.
What Happened
According to GMet, observations from its own monitoring systems and from international climate institutions — including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) — indicate that the El Niño event is intensifying. El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that shifts rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, including in West Africa.
GMet says the developing phenomenon is likely to influence Ghana's weather into the first half of 2027. The agency forecasts a hotter, drier and dustier dry season from late November 2026, running through to March 2027. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most parts of the country, although cooler-than-average conditions are anticipated in the south-west and in some parts of the Volta Region, particularly between Ho and Kete Krachi.
Rainfall is forecast to be below normal across most of Ghana, with some exceptions: inland parts of Greater Accra and Central regions, south-western parts of the Volta and Eastern regions, parts of Bono and Savannah regions, and north-western parts of the Upper West Region are expected to record above-normal rainfall. GMet stresses that the onset and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain and will continue to be monitored as new climate information becomes available.
Background
Ghana's experience with previous El Niño episodes underlines why the agency is sounding the alarm early. GMet points to the very strong events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, as well as the moderate 2023/24 episode, as examples of how rainfall variability during El Niño can hit agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and public health.
The warning comes as Pacific warming itself has reached exceptional levels. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported in late October 2026 that weekly relative Niño3.4 temperatures had reached +2.88°C for the week ending 25 October, the highest in its weekly dataset since 2008, beating the previous record of +2.78°C set in November 2015. That global backdrop helps explain why national forecasters across the tropics are issuing unusually early seasonal warnings.
El Niño does not affect every region in the same way. In West Africa, its influence typically plays out through shifts in the timing and amount of rainfall and through hotter, dustier Harmattan-like conditions in the dry season — the pattern GMet is now forecasting for Ghana. The agency says it is monitoring the event daily and will issue updated outlooks alongside its regular ten-day agricultural bulletins.
Illustration: Warm currents spreading across the equatorial Pacific during El Niño.
Why It Matters
For Ghana's farmers, the forecast cuts both ways and demands careful timing. GMet has advised farmers to follow weather updates and agricultural advisories from the agency and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting, and to consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate. It also urges farmers to avoid bush burning, which can easily escape control in dry, dusty conditions and worsen both fire risk and air quality.
For households, the drier and dustier dry season raises the likelihood of bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock. GMet has urged households and communities to conserve water and to rely on official sources for weather information. Residents are advised to drink sufficient water during hot periods, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day, and check on vulnerable people, including older persons, young children and those who are unwell.
The health warning is specific. GMet says the hot, dry and dusty conditions could increase the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana, and it expects February to April 2027 to record the highest heat stress, especially in the north. Residents in northern Ghana have been urged to minimise exposure to dust and to seek immediate medical attention if they develop symptoms such as fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.
There is also a counter-intuitive risk the agency does not want the public to forget: despite the generally below-normal rainfall forecast, communities along the Volta River and residents of flood-prone, low-lying urban areas have been cautioned against lowering their guard. Short, intense downpours and localised flooding remain possible, and GMet urges residents to continue following safety advisories from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).
What Happens Next
GMet says it will monitor the El Niño event daily and provide updated weather outlooks as conditions evolve. It will also collaborate with stakeholders across disaster risk management, energy, agriculture, water resources, health, local government, transport, minerals and maritime sectors, so that forecasts are translated into timely, location-specific preparedness and response measures.
The next milestones to watch are the peak of the event, expected between now and January 2027, and the February-to-April window when heat stress in northern Ghana is forecast to be at its highest. Farmers will be watching the agency's ten-day agricultural bulletins for guidance on planting, while health authorities in the north will be watching dust and temperature conditions for the meningitis season. If the event weakens as expected during the first half of 2027, attention will shift to how the 2027 rainy seasons establish themselves — a question GMet says remains uncertain for now.
For now, the agency's message is one of early preparation rather than alarm: plan for a long, hot, dry and dusty season, conserve water, protect crops and livestock, look out for vulnerable neighbours — and do not assume that a drier season means no flooding at all.
Illustration: A community conserving water at a village well during a drought.
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FAQ
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, including in West Africa. It is one phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle.
When will Ghana's dry season be affected?
GMet forecasts a hotter, drier and dustier dry season from late November 2026 through to March 2027, with the El Niño event expected to peak between now and January 2027.
Which parts of Ghana will be hit hardest?
Below-normal rainfall is forecast across most of the country, and the highest heat stress is expected in northern Ghana between February and April 2027. Some areas, including inland Greater Accra and parts of the Volta, Eastern, Bono, Savannah and Upper West regions, are expected to see above-normal rainfall.
Why is meningitis a concern?
GMet warns that hot, dry and dusty conditions could increase the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana, and advises residents to minimise dust exposure and seek immediate medical care for symptoms such as fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.
Could there still be flooding in a drier season?
Yes. GMet cautions that short, intense downpours and localised flooding remain possible, especially in southern Ghana, and urges communities along the Volta River and in flood-prone, low-lying urban areas to keep following NADMO and VRA safety advisories.
Sources
- Ghana Meteorological Agency warning, as reported by BigNewsGh, 1 November 2026.
- Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, weekly Niño3.4 announcement, late October 2026, as reported in World News Daily Hub post #614.
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) observations, as cited by GMet.
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