South Africa's Splintering Vote: ANC Faces Its Toughest Test Yet as Coalitions Loom Over Major Cities

JOHANNESBURG — South Africa heads to local elections on 4 November 2026 with its political map more fragmented than at any point since the end of apartheid, as polls suggest the once-dominant African National Congress (ANC) could fall to between 31% and 34% of the vote — roughly half the more than 60% it won in the 2011 local elections.

The vote will decide who runs the country's major municipalities, and with no party expected to win outright in several big cities, the real contest may begin only after polling day, when rivals must negotiate coalitions to form governments stable enough to fix services, rebuild infrastructure and attract investment.

Illustration: Voters queueing outside a polling station in South Africa. This is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.

What Happened

Reporting by Reuters on 2 November 2026, ahead of the 4 November vote, captured the mood of an electorate drifting away from old loyalties. Mpho Moroka, a 38-year-old unemployed woman from Soweto, told Reuters she first voted in 2008 for the ANC but has now switched to the rival Democratic Alliance (DA).

"I'm from the township. I saw the poverty, I saw the struggles and I saw that there is no change," she said at a DA campaign rally. "So I said no more ANC."

Her shift reflects a broader fragmentation, Reuters reported: polls suggest the ANC will remain the biggest single party overall but will bleed support, while voters disperse among a number of parties, including the left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe, led by former president Jacob Zuma. Hundreds of parties are taking part in the votes.

In Cape Town, unemployed first-time voter Abdul Tonta, 28, told Reuters he wanted change and jobs. "Obviously we've been lied to a lot of times ... by many parties in the past," he said. "I'm at least voting because I want to see people like me and people like my brothers having jobs as well."

Background

The ANC has governed South Africa nationally since the first democratic elections in 1994, and for years it also dominated most big cities. That dominance has eroded steadily. The 2011 local elections, when the party won more than 60%, now look like a high-water mark: support has fallen in successive votes as voters punished poor service delivery, corruption scandals and a struggling economy.

At national level, the fragmentation already forced a historic change after the 2024 general election, when the ANC lost its parliamentary majority and formed a coalition government that included its traditional rival, the DA. The local elections will test whether that kind of arrangement can be repeated — or even works — at city level, where the stakes are more immediate: water, electricity, roads, refuse collection and local jobs.

Johannesburg illustrates the instability that coalition politics can bring. The city has seen seven mayors since 2021, Reuters reported, and its previous two mayors came from a party that held only three out of 270 seats on the city council. Yunus Chamda, coordinator of the civil society group Joburg Crisis Alliance, formed in 2023 to deal with what he called "coalition chaos", told Reuters that shifting alliances and a revolving door of mayors had contributed to worsening services and financial decline in Johannesburg, including by giving small parties too much power and allowing politicians to evade accountability.

Illustration: The Johannesburg skyline at dusk. This is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.

Why It Matters

South Africa's cities are its economic engines. Johannesburg, Tshwane (Pretoria) and Ekurhuleni together anchor Gauteng, the country's richest province, and their administrations decide much of what residents and businesses experience day to day. A stable, competent city government can repair infrastructure and restore investor confidence; a paralysed one deepens the service crisis that is driving voters away in the first place.

Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told Reuters that polling pointed to ANC support of as low as 31% to 34%. Crucially, he added, the DA — the second-biggest party — was not capturing all of the ANC's deserters. Voters are scattering instead, which makes outright majorities harder and coalition talks messier.

That fragmentation carries a warning. "One problem with coalitions under the current legislation is that they are left to parties to negotiate amongst themselves," Chamda told Reuters. "It's created this huge instability. And when you confront political parties, they are able to divert the attack to the fact that it's a coalition."

For the ANC, the election is a test of whether it can still claim to be the natural party of government, or whether it is now simply the largest party in a permanently multi-party system. For the DA, it is a test of whether it can convert discontent with the ANC into votes of its own, rather than watching those votes scatter to smaller rivals. For smaller parties, it is a chance to become kingmakers — with all the bargaining power, and all the blame, that brings.

What Happens Next

South Africans vote on Tuesday, 4 November 2026. Results will show first whether the ANC's support has indeed fallen into the low-30s range suggested by polling, and then — in the days that follow — which coalitions emerge in the most contested municipalities.

Analysts told Reuters that one route to stable municipal governments could be for the ANC and the DA, traditional rivals that joined forces in the national government after the 2024 election, to replicate that arrangement locally. "The most important question in cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni is whether they will produce a stable government," Nel said.

Both parties would need to weigh the political cost of governing together across national, provincial and municipal levels, Reuters reported, and neither is enthusiastic about the prospect. "Coalitions make it difficult for us to fully implement our programme," the ANC's Johannesburg regional chairperson, Loyiso Masuku, said at a campaign stop last month. The DA's candidate for mayor of Johannesburg, Helen Zille, said partners often do not respect the agreements that were signed. "By definition, coalitions hold you back," she said.

Whatever deals emerge, the next few weeks will reveal whether South Africa's cities get governments that can last a full term — or another round of fragile alliances, short-lived mayors and voters who feel, once again, that nothing has changed.

Illustration: A coalition negotiation meeting in a municipal council chamber. This is an illustration, not a photograph of a real event.

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FAQ

When are South Africa's local elections?

South Africans vote in local elections on 4 November 2026, choosing the councils that run the country's municipalities, including its major cities.

What do the polls suggest for the ANC?

Polling cited by Reuters suggests ANC support could fall to between 31% and 34% — roughly half the more than 60% the party won in the 2011 local elections — although it is still expected to remain the biggest single party overall.

Why are coalitions likely?

Because no party is expected to win an outright majority in several major municipalities, parties will have to negotiate coalition agreements after the vote to form city governments.

Which cities matter most?

Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni are the most closely watched contests, according to analysts cited by Reuters, because the key question is whether they produce stable governments.

Why has Johannesburg had so many mayors?

Johannesburg has seen seven mayors since 2021, Reuters reported, as shifting coalition alliances and a revolving door of leadership have contributed to worsening services and financial decline in the city.

Sources

• Reuters, "South Africa's splintering vote sets up multi-party battle for cities", 2 November 2026.