SEOUL/WASHINGTON — The rebuke President Donald Trump suffered in the midterm elections could push him to re-engage North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, analysts say, as he seeks a legacy success in his final two years. But seven years after their last summit ended in failure, Kim has little reason to answer — and any deal Trump might offer could put Washington at odds with its closest allies in Asia.
With efforts to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran yet to produce a breakthrough, analysts and officials in Asia expect Trump to turn to the region where he believes he has room to manoeuvre. The problem is that the North Korea of 2026 is not the North Korea of 2019: its arsenal is far larger, its ties with Russia and China are the best in years, and Pyongyang has now said it sees no need for talks.
What Happened
A Reuters analysis published on Friday 6 November 2026, by Brenda Goh, Tamiyuki Kihara and David Brunnstrom, reports that analysts and officials in Asia expect Trump to focus on foreign policy as he seeks to build his legacy in his final two years. With his domestic agenda likely to face greater constraints, a foreign-policy breakthrough — North Korea is the most obvious candidate — could become central to his remaining time in office.
"Trump is likely to devote significant effort to achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces greater constraints on the domestic front," said Ban Kil-joo of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. "Given Trump would want a successor to win in 2028, there is a strong possibility that engagement with North Korea would be part of that agenda," he added.
The White House pushed back on the idea that politics drives the president's diplomacy. "His foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics," spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in emailed comments to Reuters. "The Commander-in-Chief will always act in the best interest of the American people and our national security."
Trump has made no secret of his interest in restarting talks, calling Kim a "great guy" and saying they "get along very well". Earlier this year he said he "may" meet Kim during his November trip to Asia and that it "would be exciting", although he appeared to backtrack in October, according to an AFP report carried by The Economic Times.
Yet officials in Washington and Seoul now see fading chances of a meeting this year. According to Reuters, the United States has received no response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month, where the two leaders might have met. An AFP report published on 5 November 2026 agreed, saying a meeting "appears increasingly unlikely" this month.
Pyongyang's signals have been unmistakable. Kim's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, said in a KCNA statement on Wednesday 4 November that dialogue remains a path to peace but that North Korea currently sees no need for talks. She denounced Washington's "hostile policy" and denied US accusations that North Korea stole more than $6 billion in virtual assets from Binance. According to Reuters, she said Pyongyang had "no need to sit face to face with such unreliable and hostile persons".
Illustration: Stylised silhouettes of two leaders in dark suits facing each other across a long diplomatic table in a grand hall.
Background
To be clear, this article follows one thread: US–North Korea diplomacy after the 2026 midterm elections, and whether a new Trump–Kim meeting is realistic. It is not a general account of the midterm results or their wider aftermath, already covered separately, nor is it about the Kim death rumours reported in October, the Swiss diplomatic visit to Pyongyang, or the separate Melania Trump, Kirill Dmitriev and Abu Dhabi talks story.
Trump met Kim three times during his first term, after an opening period of hostile rhetoric that raised fears of military conflict. Their first meeting, in Singapore in June 2018, was the first ever between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader, and it produced a vague joint statement on denuclearisation. A second summit followed in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019 — and ended abruptly, without agreement, over North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and sanctions relief.
The Hanoi breakdown has shaped everything since. North Korea offered to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear complex for the lifting of five United Nations sanctions imposed between 2016 and 2017, but Trump demanded other facilities be dismantled too and insisted on complete denuclearisation. Trump later said the talks ended because Pyongyang wanted all sanctions lifted; North Korea's then foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, said only a partial lifting had been sought. The leaders met a third time, briefly, at the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019, but working-level talks never recovered.
Seven years on, the stakes are considerably higher. North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal, while Pyongyang's ties with Russia and China are the best in years, giving Kim less incentive to negotiate and increasing the pressure on Trump to offer concessions. Its economy grew by more than three percent for a third straight year in 2025, according to Seoul's central bank, citing expanding cooperation with Russia.
Kim has said he was open to talks if Washington stopped insisting that his country give up its nuclear weapons. That condition strikes at the heart of the US position, and of the alliance system in Northeast Asia. South Korea and Japan oppose any such concession, and analysts say the gap between what Kim would demand and what Washington's allies would accept may now be wider than in Hanoi.
Illustration: A stylised map of the Korean Peninsula, with the flags of North Korea, South Korea, the United States, China and Japan arranged around it.
Why It Matters
The central question is no longer whether Trump and Kim like each other, but whether a new engagement would trade away the principle that has anchored US policy towards North Korea for decades: denuclearisation. Trump has referred to North Korea as a nuclear power, a status allies in the region and the West have refused to recognise, despite the dozens of nuclear warheads Pyongyang is believed to have built.
"If US-North Korea talks lead Washington to accept North Korea's nuclear status, the security environment in Asia would change dramatically," said Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima at Sophia University in Japan. "The biggest change since World War Two could occur in the remaining two years of the Trump administration. It is a serious situation."
That is why Seoul and Tokyo are watching Washington so nervously. "A summit that shelves denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create policy friction among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. A deal accepting North Korea as a nuclear-armed state would force both allies to rethink their own security.
Officials in Japan and South Korea also fear being "cut out of the loop" if Trump deals directly with Kim, with the quiet blessing of Beijing and Moscow, a senior Japanese official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "(Japanese officials) are concerned about the lengths he will go to get a summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un, such as dropping the issue of denuclearisation," the official said.
The arsenal Trump would be negotiating over is far more advanced than the one on the table in 2018 and 2019. According to Reuters, Kim now commands more weapons and missiles, including hypersonic glide vehicles, modern warships, submarines and improved drones. Each raises the price Pyongyang would demand for any freeze — let alone any rollback.
There are also domestic obstacles. Any concessions Trump offered, such as more than partial sanctions relief, could face hurdles from a Democratic-controlled Congress and his limited time in office, said Moon Chung-in, a Yonsei University professor in Seoul and former presidential adviser on national security. "And what is important is North Korea's perception and calculation; if North Korea thinks that Trump has entered a lame-duck period and he cannot get the support from Congress... there's no reason for Kim Jong Un to come to dialogue," Moon said. As Michael Bosack of the Parley Policy Institute told AFP: "Right now, nothing Trump offers comes with a guarantee that it will last beyond January 2029."
Illustration: A stylised, non-graphic concept of missile diplomacy — a rocket silhouette rising over a calm sea at dusk beside an olive branch.
What Happens Next
The immediate test comes later this month, when regional leaders gather in China. If Trump and Kim met on the margins of that summit, it would be their first encounter since 2019. For now, though, there is no sign Pyongyang intends to take up the opportunity: Washington has received no response, and Kim Yo Jong's statement was a door left ajar rather than an invitation — dialogue in principle, but no talks while Washington maintains what Pyongyang calls its hostile policy.
Former US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who led US negotiations with North Korea during Trump's first term, was blunt. "The North Koreans, I think, have very little upside to a meeting like this right now, and potentially some downside," he said. For Kim, the status quo — a growing arsenal, strong backing from Moscow and Beijing, and an economy growing on cooperation with Russia — is, as Lim Eul-chul of Kyungnam University told AFP, "the best option right now".
That does not mean the story is over. Trump is expected to keep pursuing top-down dialogue with North Korea, analysts told AFP, and his personal rapport with Kim remains an asset no other American president has possessed. If the regional summit passes without a meeting, attention will shift to whether Washington makes a more concrete offer — on sanctions, on the denuclearisation demand, or on the framework of talks. For Seoul and Tokyo, the watchword is vigilance: both will press Washington for consultation before any direct engagement, and both will measure any Trump initiative against one test — does it strengthen deterrence, or trade it away for a photograph?
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FAQ
Why would Trump turn to North Korea after the midterm elections?
Analysts say that with his domestic agenda likely to face greater constraints, and his efforts on Ukraine and Iran yet to produce breakthroughs, Trump is expected to focus on foreign policy. North Korea is a natural candidate given his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un.
Has Kim Jong Un agreed to meet Trump?
No. US and South Korean officials see fading chances of a meeting, and Washington has received no response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month. Kim Yo Jong said on 4 November that dialogue remains a path to peace, but North Korea sees no need for talks now.
What is the main obstacle to new talks?
Denuclearisation. Kim has said he is open to talks if Washington stops insisting North Korea give up its nuclear weapons, but South Korea and Japan oppose any concession, and analysts warn a summit shelving denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create friction among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.
Is this the same story as the other midterm or North Korea articles on this blog?
No. This article covers one track — US–North Korea diplomacy and the prospects for a Trump–Kim meeting after the 2026 midterms. It is distinct from this blog's earlier coverage of the general midterm foreign-policy aftermath, the Kim death rumours reported in October, the Swiss diplomatic visit to Pyongyang, and the separate Melania Trump, Kirill Dmitriev and Abu Dhabi talks story.
Could Trump still meet Kim before the end of the year?
It is not impossible, but analysts consider it unlikely. Any meeting would require Pyongyang to respond to US outreach, and Kim currently sees little upside in a summit. If the regional summit passes without an encounter, the next window would depend on whether Washington offers a concrete policy change, and whether Kim believes any deal would outlast Trump's presidency.
Sources
- Reuters — "Trump could woo North Korea after midterm setback, but Kim may not respond", by Brenda Goh, Tamiyuki Kihara and David Brunnstrom, 6 November 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-could-woo-north-korea-after-midterm-setback-kim-may-not-respond-2026-11-06/
- The Economic Times (AFP) — "Trump's midterm defeat dims hopes of North Korea meeting", 5 November 2026. https://s2sorigineconomictimes.timesofindia.co.in/news/international/world-news/trumps-midterm-loss-stalls-prospects-for-north-korea-summit-as-tensions-rise/articleshow/135556860.cms
- Korea JoongAng Daily — "Lessons from Hanoi: South Korea and U.S. must rethink North Korea strategy", 2 November 2026. https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/opinion/lessons-from-hanoi-korea-us-must-rethink-north-korea-strategy/12951160
- Atlantic Council — "Trump did the right thing in Hanoi", 1 March 2019. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/trump-did-the-right-thing-in-hanoi/
- 38 North — "US-North Korea Relations: From Infancy to Maturity", by Ruediger Frank, 1 March 2019. http://38north.org/2019/03/rfrank
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